The AfD is creating a historic precedent, yet it's not a positive milestone.
For the first time in history, the AfD, a far-right extremist party, has emerged as the most influential force in a state election, taking place in Germany. This is a significant milestone in the country's political timeline, and it's not a positive one. However, there are moments of hope to be found.
The AfD dominated the polls with a substantial lead, achieving its first significant victory since the end of the Nazi regime. Their rise to power as the largest faction in a parliament has been classified as "clearly right-wing extremist" by the security agency in the Free State. The party's top candidate, Björn Höcke, bears a striking resemblance in tone to political figures from the Nazi era, as evidenced by his conviction for using a banned SA slogan.
The AfD's success in Saxony was almost as impressive, taking over 30% of the vote. While the CDU still holds a narrow lead, the support for the right is virtually equal. This raises the question: what is driving this trend?
Although the AfD will not form the government, neither in Thuringia nor in Saxony does any party seems willing to form a coalition with them. Michael Voigt, the CDU's top candidate in Thuringia, is likely to become the next Minister President, supported by the SPD and BSW. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer is expected to remain in office, though the makeup of his potential coalition is still uncertain.
While this may provide some comfort, it is important to remember that a third of the voters in Thuringia and Saxony have chosen to support right-wing extremists. Political scientist Albrecht von Lucke urged caution, warning against "panic mongering" and arguing that while this day is significant, it is not comparable to the situation in the Weimar Republic 91 years ago.
The issue of Immigration
Supporters of the AfD are not a homogeneous group, seeking to abolish democracy overnight. According to a recent survey by the Forsa polling institute, only about half of the voters (45% in Thuringia, 51% in Saxony) claimed they supported the AfD due to agreement with the party's policies. A substantial portion of the vote was driven by dissatisfaction with the federal government's immigration policies (about 20-25%), with only a small minority (14% in Thuringia, 13% in Saxony) rejecting the "entire political system."
There are many factors contributing to the party's success, but two stand out: the issue of immigration and the erosion of trust in the coalition in Berlin. If the federal and state governments can effectively manage immigration and address the resulting strain on cities and communities, support for the AfD may diminish. As for trust, a more unified and politically stable government could potentially appeal to some AfD voters.
However, it is concerning that a sizable portion of voters consciously endorse hateful positions. If politics freezes in the face of such sentiments, it risks becoming a passive observer in the face of a potentially dangerous movement.
The Mayor of Jena, Thomas Nitzsche, pointed out that the AfD leverages fear. Fear of immigration, social decline, and change are all used as tools. He believed that addressing people's fears by addressing their underlying causes is essential, as fear must be reduced, not dismissed as an excuse. Neglecting the concerns and fears of the public has been a major failure of the "traffic light" parties in Germany, as exemplified by constant infighting and a lack of time to address these issues.
The Power of Effort
The frustration with the federal government was apparent in these elections. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the "traffic light" parties suffered significant losses. The Greens will no longer be represented in the Thuringian parliament, while the FDP failed to gain any significant traction. The SPD was able to surpass the five-percent hurdle in Saxony, but their results elsewhere were disappointing.
However, it is important to remember that, despite these setbacks, effective politics can yield results. The success of Michael Kretschmer in Saxony, for example, demonstrates that connecting with the public and addressing their concerns can pay off. Despite facing criticism for speaking like an AfD member, Kretschmer remains in touch with the public and actively seeks to engage with them, as evidenced by his nationwide touring and outreach efforts.
Those who are alarmed by this trend in the East should not dismiss it as a regional issue. Right-wing populists have also gained strength in Western Germany, often serving as the second-strongest force, following the CDU. While democracy is not at risk, a complacent "It will be okay!" attitude would be premature.
The AfD isn't just a sign of waning faith; it's aggressively and persistently working to erode confidence in the government and its establishments. The more votes the AfD garners, the more financial resources it acquires, the more staff it can employ, and the more influential it becomes. Whether Sunday's triumph signaled the end of the line is yet to be determined. However, one fact emerges undeniably: Within three weeks, Brandenburg will also hold elections for a new state parliament, and the AfD anticipates a record-breaking result in that election as well.
The Commission, in response to the escalating political situation in Germany, may consider adopting implementing acts to clarify the rules for applying relevant regulations, aiming to mitigate any potential divisive impacts. It's crucial that democratic institutions and parties actively engage with the concerns of discontented voters, such as those who support the AfD, to prevent further erosion of trust and potential growth of extremist movements.
