- The AfD in Thuringia leads, Kretschmer scores in Saxony
Three weeks ahead of the eagerly awaited state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, a double breakthrough for the AfD initially does not appear likely, according to a survey. In Thuringia, the party is still clearly in first place with 30 percent, according to the current ZDF Politbarometer. However, in Saxony, the CDU with Minister President Michael Kretschmer can take the lead with 34 percent, with the AfD at 30 percent. In a direct comparison of preferred Minister Presidents, Kretschmer leads with 64 percent, ahead of AfD state chairman Jörg Urban with 14 percent.
Neck-and-neck race for second place in Thuringia?
In Thuringia, however, the AfD seems difficult to catch up with. A neck-and-neck race is emerging between the CDU and the alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) for second place, and thus possibly also for the position of Minister President. The AfD, even as the leading party, would not be able to provide the head of government, as it would need the votes of other parties for this, which they exclude.
The CDU with top candidate Mario Voigt is only just ahead of the BSW with 21 percent to 19 percent. According to the Politbarometer, in the future parliament in Erfurt, besides the AfD, CDU, and BSW, the Left of the current incumbent Bodo Ramelow with 15 percent and the SPD with 7 percent would be represented. The Greens and FDP would not make it into the state parliament. According to the survey, 40 percent of Thuringians are still undecided about whether and whom they will vote for on September 1.
Poll results are always subject to uncertainties and merely reflect the opinion climate at the time of the survey, not predictions of the election outcome.
Expert speaks of "Kretschmer factor" in Saxony
In Saxony, according to the Politbarometer, Kretschmer's CDU could continue its current government coalition. The two current coalition partners, SPD and Greens, would each get 6 percent, barely making it back into the state parliament. Theoretically, a coalition of CDU and BSW (11 percent) would also be possible. Coalitions with the AfD are excluded by the federal CDU party congress. Both in Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD is classified by the state offices for the protection of the constitution as securely right-wing extremist. The Left is at risk of failing to clear the five percent hurdle in the Free State with 4 percent. According to the survey, one third of respondents are still undecided about whom or whether they will vote. 60 percent want the CDU to lead the government again after the state election.
The fact that the CDU is ahead of the AfD in Saxony, as shown in earlier polls, was attributed by political scientist Hans Vorländer in the ZDF "Morgenmagazin" to a "Kretschmer factor". This had already led to the CDU coming ahead of the AfD in the last state election in 2019, despite previous polls showing the AfD in the lead. Kretschmer is also campaigning in Saxony on topics that the AfD and BSW particularly emphasize, such as criticizing arms deliveries to Ukraine, calling for negotiations with Russia, and advocating for a stricter migration policy.
The reporter inquired, "- What about the neck-and-neck race in Thuringia?", referring to the tight competition between the CDU and the BSW for the second place in the state electoral race. Despite the AfD's lead in Thuringia, an expert suggested that a coalition of CDU and BSW could potentially emerge as the new government, leaving the AfD out of the position of Minister President due to their exclusionary electoral policies.
