The entire traffic light government is slipping
Shortly after the European election, the traffic light coalition government continues to sink in the trend barometer, with the SPD falling behind the AfD again. Wagenknecht's Left party (BSW), however, is working its way up and has now overtaken the FDP.
The significant losses of SPD, Greens, and FDP in the European election are barely digested, as the trend for the traffic light parties continues to go down in the trend barometer. All three governing parties each lose one point and together only reach 32 percent approval in Germany. The ruling party SPD falls back again, similar to the previous winter, with its value behind the AfD.
For the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), the upward trend continues. Last week, they were even with the FDP, but now they can overtake the Liberals. The Union's value remains stable.
If the Bundestag were to be elected in this week, the parties could count on the following results: CDU/CSU 30 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), SPD 15 percent (25.7 percent), AfD 16 percent (10.3 percent), Greens 12 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), BSW 7 percent (-). The remaining parties, including the Left and the Free Voters, account for 13 percent.
For the Chancellor, it's going even worse this week than for the governing parties. For the first time in the question of chancellor preferences, Olaf Scholz must give up the favorite role and two percentage points to Friedrich Merz. With 28 percent approval, he now trails the CDU leader by two percentage points if the Germans were to directly elect their chancellor or chancellor.
In the question of political competence, the Union improves by two percentage points. Therefore, 20 percent of the Germans consider CDU and CSU competent, which is a record value compared to the values of the past year. In 2023, the Union averaged 14 percent approval in terms of political competence.
The SPD loses a point and is currently only trusted by 8 percent of the German population to solve the problems in Germany. Six percent trust the Greens with this, and they also lose a percentage point. The FDP only achieves 2 percent approval in terms of political competence, as in the previous weeks. Six percent consider the AfD competent, a value that has not changed. 54 percent write off none of the Bundestag parties as politically capable.
In the past few days, the European election has kept the Germans most occupied. The theme radar leads with 62 percent, significantly behind it at 43 percent is the war in Ukraine. The work of the federal government is considered important by 24 percent of the respondents. The European Football Championship comes in at 22 percent. The economic situation is considered important by 18 percent of the Germans, and the Near East conflict is named by 16 percent of the respondents. Climate and environment are only mentioned as important by 8 percent.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between June 11 and 17. Data basis: 2504 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
Further information on Forsa here.
Forsa surveys on behalf of RTL Germany.
The SPD, although part of the traffic light coalition government, continues to fall behind the AfD in the RTL/ntv trend barometer, while Wagenknecht's Left party (BSW) is surpassing the FDP and reaching higher approval ratings. The Greens and FDP, facing significant losses in the European election, are also experiencing a downward trend in the trend barometer along with the SPD. The Union parliamentary group, on the other hand, remains stable. Interestingly, if a new Bundestag election were held this week, the SPD would likely receive fewer votes compared to the 2021 Bundestag election. The SPD and other governing parties, including the Greens and FDP, are collectively losing ground and currently only reach 32 percent approval in Germany. In terms of political competence, the Union improves by two percentage points, making them the most trusted party by 20 percent of Germans, compared to the SPD's 8 percent. The RTL/ntv trend barometer data, collected by Forsa between June 11 and 17, indicates these developments.
