- The accomplishments of the AfD pose challenges for the party, prompting the CDU to seek alliances
Following the AfD's success in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the struggling coalition parties in Berlin are discussing potential consequences. Alongside top candidates from the states, the party leaders are tackling questions. Complex coalition-building processes are underway in both Saxony and Thuringia. In both states, the CDU aims to secure the Minister President position. However, it remains uncertain with which coalitions this can be achieved.
In Thuringia, the CDU relies on BSW and the Left
Although the AfD has a significant lead in Thuringia, it is unlikely to be included in the formation of a new government due to other parties ruling out a coalition with it. Previously, there were hopes for a coalition of CDU, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), and SPD, but a tie in seats in the state parliament emerged: 44 seats for the potential three-party coalition on one side and 44 seats for a possible opposition of AfD and Left on the other.
Such a coalition would require the Left. The co-chairman of the Thuringian Left, Christian Schaft, told dpa that if tolerance negotiations or similar were needed, his party would be "open" to such discussions. For the CDU, such a model would involve negotiations, as the party has so far excluded a coalition with the Left due to a resolution passed at the federal party congress.
CDU state chairman Mario Voigt did not commit to whether a government led by him would be tolerated by the Left. Initially, he announced plans to approach the SPD and be "open to talks" with the BSW. However, CDU politicians are particularly concerned about Wagenknecht's past as a member of the DDR state party SED and a leading figure in the communist platform in the Left. A coalition is possible, but as the CDU is not allowed to coalition with the AfD or the Left according to a non-cooperation resolution, the BSW is unaffected by this.
Struggle in the renewal of the CDU-led government in Saxony with Greens and SPD
In Saxony, a renewal of the CDU-led government with Greens and SPD under Minister President Michael Kretschmer is just short of being achieved. Unlike in Thuringia, a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD would have a majority. Kretschmer stated that his CDU is ready to take responsibility once again and form a stable government.
None of the other parties wish to coalition with the AfD, which is also considered right-wing extremist in Saxony.
Thuringia's election results
According to preliminary results, the AfD has become the strongest force in Thuringia for the first time in post-war history with 32.8 percent (2019: 23.4 percent). The CDU, led by top candidate Mario Voigt, obtained 23.6 percent (21.7). The new Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved 15.8 percent from a standing start and even surpassed the Left of Minister President Bodo Ramelow, which managed only 13.1 percent (31.0). The coalition parties suffered significant losses: The SPD recorded its worst result in a state election since the establishment of the Federal Republic with 6.1 percent (8.2). The Greens and FDP failed to enter the parliament with 3.2 percent (5.2) and 1.1 percent (5.0), respectively.
In the Thuringian State Parliament, the AfD secured 32 seats (22). The CDU obtained 23 seats (21), while the BSW garnered 15. The Left still retained 12 mandates (29). The SPD provided 6 members of parliament (8).
Approximately 1.66 million people were invited to vote. The voter turnout was 73.6 percent, significantly higher than in 2019, when it was 64.9 percent.
Saxony's election results
In Saxony, the CDU remains the leading party with preliminary results of 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The AfD follows closely with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW, a splinter group from the Left, achieved 11.8 percent from scratch. The SPD fared poorly with 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left managed only 4.5 percent, half of its vote share five years ago (10.4). Despite falling below the five percent hurdle, it won two direct mandates in Leipzig and was thus represented in the state parliament according to its second vote result.
The Greens are once again entering the parliament with 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP failed to enter - as in the previous two state elections.
In the Saxon State Parliament, the AfD gained 41 seats (38), while the CDU obtained 42 mandates (45). The BSW provided 15 members of parliament. The SPD received 9 seats (10), the Greens entered with 6 seats (12), as did the Left (14). The Free Voters are also represented in the parliament with one member who won a direct mandate.
Approximately 3.3 million citizens were invited to vote. The voter turnout was 74.4 percent. In 2019, it was 66.5 percent.
A setback for the federal-level Traffic Light Coalition
The blow to the traffic light parties at the federal level is quite substantial, as per the results. SPD chairperson Saskia Esken pressured Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make it more apparent that the SPD is in charge in Berlin. FDP deputy Wolfgang Kubicki voiced his criticism on the X platform, claiming that the traffic light coalition had lost its right to govern due to the results. Green party head Omid Nouripour pinned the poor performance on unnecessary squabbles within the coalition. Regardless of these unfavorable federal poll results, it's highly improbable that any of the three parties will abandon the coalition beforehand.
The CDU is now confronted with a challenging dilemma: whether and how they can collaborate with BSW and the Left. Party leader Friedrich Merz initially refused to collaborate with BSW. However, following protests from eastern supporters, Merz conceded and passed the responsibility to the regional politicians.
In this context, the FDP could potentially be a part of the coalition discussions in Berlin, providing an alternative to the CDU's struggle with collaborating with BSW and the Left in Thuringia. Despite not making it into the Thuringian parliament, the FDP has a significant presence at the federal level.
Moreover, the FDP's inclusion in the Berlin coalition discussions could provide a fresh perspective, potentially leading to more inclusive and stable coalition-building processes across the different states.
