Terrorism analyst recognizes ISIS's capitalization on October 7's trend
Is the suspect from Solingen truly connected to ISIS?
The claim made by ISIS, the Islamic extremist group, that the brutal attack in Solingen was carried out by one of their allies is being taken seriously by terrorist analysts. In their announcement, the radicals declare that a "ISIS agent" perpetrated the assault on a Christian gathering in Solingen, as retaliation for Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere. Therefore, it's evident that this was an act of ISIS. This is backed up by the sources and methods used to spread this claim, including ISIS's own media outlet.
However, it remains unclear how the 26-year-old Syrian man who surrendered to the police is linked to ISIS. Being a part of ISIS isn't necessarily a requirement to carry out acts of terror in their name. Over the past decade, the group has encouraged committed Muslims to carry out any sort of attack, offering ideas in their own online publications. As terrorism expert Peter R. Neumann states in the Ronzheimer podcast, "This includes ramming a vehicle into a crowd or attacking so-called infidels with knives. That's in almost every issue of these online publications."
Could the suspect have acted independently?
The possibility that Issa al H. was self-radicalized through the internet is plausible. The significance of online Islamic extremist groups, such as Telegram, has grown significantly in recent years.
Ten years ago, terrorism researcher Peter R. Neumann suggested that face-to-face contact with the extremist scene, such as through a radical preacher or a radical mosque, was necessary for an Islamist's radicalization. However, in cities like Wolfsburg, Dinslaken, or even Solingen, this wasn't always the case, as there were radical preachers and mosques that individuals could connect with. Apart from online content, they also had someone to communicate with, says Neumann.
According to Neumann, this isn't necessary today. In the majority of recent cases he's observed, the attackers have radicalized themselves entirely online, without any physical contact with the scene.
How dangerous is Islamic extremism to Germany today? It was once believed that the military defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq would significantly reduce the threat of extremists, as their infrastructure seemed decimated and the dream of a "caliphate" state seemed unattainable. However, the risk of attacks in Europe has actually increased. Human rights expert Maike Nadar writes that since ISIS propaganda no longer focuses on recruitment to the "caliphate," but instead calls on individuals to plan and carry out attacks in Germany and Europe in ISIS's name using all available means, the danger has become more widespread.
Peter Neumann has noticed a significant increase in terrorist activities since the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023. He described it as a "massive mobilization of Muslims, jihadists across Western Europe" in the spring on Deutschlandfunk. He considers Islamism and jihadism to be "the greatest, current terrorist threat in Germany, in Europe."
The Hamas terror offensive against Israel has reportedly served as inspiration for ISIS supporters, who use it in their propaganda. Although ISIS and Hamas don't have a formal partnership, jihadists have been encouraged to join this wave of violence. "Since January, there has been very systematic propaganda from ISIS, saying: Listen up, we know you're angry at Israel, but it's not about Palestine. It's about Muslims around the world who are oppressed," Neumann explains the calls for terror attacks.
ISIS is specifically encouraging Muslims to become part of the global religious war and carry out attacks worldwide. Germany, in Neumann's view, is not a special target, but just one of many opponents within the Western world.
Why was Issa al-H. still in Germany after his asylum application was denied? Issa al-H. came to Germany as a Syrian asylum seeker in 2022, but his application was rejected. However, the responsibility for the Syrian lay with Bulgaria per the Dublin Regulation, which applies to EU member states. The refugee should have been transferred to Bulgaria within six months.
According to media reports, al-H. was set to be transferred to Bulgaria in June 2023, but this never happened because authorities were unable to locate him at the refugee shelter in Paderborn where he was residing. There could be various reasons for this, including al-H.'s actions to avoid authorities. If al-H. went into hiding to avoid deportation, the deadline for his transfer to Bulgaria would have been extended to 18 months. He would then have had until 2024 to be transferred to Bulgaria.
According to German authorities, as reported by the news agency dpa, the young man actively avoided his scheduled return to Bulgaria. Instead, the Syrian national was granted temporary protection by Germany at the end of 2023 and was then relocated to Solingen.
Numerous refugees obtain secondary protection status if they fail to demonstrate personal persecution or threats, yet hail from nations where refugees' lives are generally under threat. For example, the Assad regime in Syria labels all homegrown refugees as adversaries and subjects them to persecution in regions under its control. Therefore, revisiting certain areas of the country could be extremely hazardous.
Regarding Issa al-H., German authorities allegedly had 18 months to send him back to Bulgaria, the nation handling his case, as the Bulgarians had consented. "We must scrutinize if everything was handled appropriately. If any error occurred, it must be candidly addressed," stated NRW Minister President Hendrik Wüst today in Solingen. In his view, Issa al-H.'s case illustrates the complexity of the duties of pertinent authorities.
Despite Issa al-H.'s asylum application being denied, he was granted temporary protection in Germany and was relocated to Solingen, raising questions about the handling of asylum seekers' cases. Given the rising threat of Islamic extremism in Europe, it's crucial to examine the circumstances that allowed a potential threat to remain within the country.
