Taylor Swift's Support for Kamala Harris Carries Significance
Taylor Swift's backing for Harris and voter registration might cause some influence, but it won't be as significant as some might expect. That being said, Harris and the Democratic Party are encountering challenges with attracting young voters and promoting voter registration, so they'll accept any assistance they can get.
As of 2 p.m. on a Wednesday, more than 330,000 individuals were redirected from Taylor Swift's Instagram to Vote.gov, according to the General Services Administration, which manages the website. An examination of Google trends revealed a surge in voter registration searches after Swift's post, a Washington Post investigation showed.
It's worth noting that there was an increase in registrations when Taylor Swift issued a similar plea to register to vote in 2023. Voter registrations increased by 23% on that day compared to the same period the previous year, resulting in a total of 35,252 new registrations nationwide.
These figures, however, are not large. If we assume that all individuals who clicked on Swift's Vote.gov link eventually registered to vote, that would amount to approximately 0.2% of the 2020 turnout. Of course, not every individual who clicked on the link will ultimately register and cast their ballot.
Moreover, the GOP has been narrowing the gap with registered Democrats in several crucial states over the past few years. Let's look at the latest voter registration data reported by government officials in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – all swing states where voters can register by party.
Republicans have boosted their lead in Arizona and reduced the gap with Democrats significantly in other states since September 2020 – gaining anywhere from over 60,000 active voters in Nevada to nearly 400,000 active voters in Pennsylvania.
The voter registration surges typically observed in Swift endorsement campaigns would not be sufficient to offset these GOP gains.
Where the endorsement can aid
However, Swift could assist Harris among those already intending to vote. According to a Grinnell College/Selzer poll published earlier this year, Taylor Swift enjoyed a 52% favorable rating among likely voters. Her unfavorable rating stood at just 32%, resulting in a net favorability rating of +20 points. A Fox News poll from last year showed similar results.
Although she isn't universally liked, she is remarkably popular compared to most politicians. Harris and former President Trump have net favorability ratings of around 0 points and -10 points, respectively.
Young "Swifties" could also be advantageous to Harris.
Currently, the vice president is underperforming, relatively speaking, amongst younger voters. According to a recent average of national polls, Harris is leading voters under the age of 30 by 15 points. Although this is better than Biden's results when he withdrew in July, it's not overwhelmingly different. Biden was up by 7 points.
Both Harris and Biden have performed worse amongst young voters this year compared to where Biden was in September 2020. At that time, Biden enjoyed a 25-point lead among young voters. This advantage would grow to 29 points by the final pre-election surveys in 2020.
Swift, on her own, won't be able to eradicate the entire gap. Remember: She couldn't translate her first major political endorsement (Democrat Phil Bredesen for Senate in 2018) into electoral success at the ballot box. Bredesen lost by double digits.
However, there's no denying that Swift is a valuable asset to Harris and the Democrats, even if it’s just on a minor scale.
We're discussing an election that is currently tied or close in both national and battleground state polls. Winning a few votes over to the Democrats and Harris might just be enough.
Despite the challenges in attracting young voters and promoting voter registration, the Democratic Party welcomes Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris and her efforts to encourage voter registration. Swift's influence in politics, demonstrated by the surge in voter registration searches and new registrations following her calls to action, can provide a boost in tight election races.
