Upcoming European polls - Swiftly climbing in popularity
Right-wing parties have had immense success in a variety of European nations, with prominent examples like Italy and France. In Italy, the Fratelli d'Italia, the parity of right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, dominated on Sunday. Meanwhile, France's National Rally party under the guidance of Marine Le Pen secured a remarkable win. Consequently, French President Emmanuel Macron has declared plans for an early National Assembly election.
Austria witnessed the right-wing FPO emerge as the strongest force, while Germany's AfD scored their best result to date, trailing behind the Union.
The two once-operating right-wing party alliances ECR and ID gained substantial ground across Europe. Ultimately, the unambiguously pro-European faction maintains the largest presence in the European Parliament. Despite right-wing parties potentially uniting, their total would likely fall short of 200 seats, which is needed for a majority totaling 361 seats.
The center-right alliance EPP, fronted by German frontrunner Ursula von der Leyen, clinched the win in the European election. The CDU politician now holds the hopes for a second spell as President of the EU Commission.
Italy: Meloni Emerges Victorious
Based on preliminary Rai counts, Meloni's Italian party has bagged 27.7% of the votes. This signifies an over 20-point increase compared to the 2019 European election. The left-wing partnership involving the social democratic PD settled in second place with 23.7%.
Meloni also happens to be the Fratelli d'Italia's lead candidate and will not join the European Parliament. Instead, she will continue leading her coalition of three right-wing parties in Rome. Meloni's influence stands to strengthen on a European scale with this result.
Germany: AfD Shines - Yet Disappoints Expectations
The European election offered a barometer of German public opinion prior to the Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg state elections in September and the coming federal election. The fact that the AfD leads in eastern Germany is particularly noteworthy.
Despite the turmoil surrounding their lead candidate Maximilian Krah and number two on the European election list, Petr Bystron, the party still managed to grow its vote share. It is predicted to have garnered between 15.8% and 15.9%, a rise of nearly five points compared to 2019. The AfD performs better than all red-green parties - the SPD secured 14% of votes, the Greens attained 11.9%, and the FDP managed 5.1%. However, the Union still reigns supreme with 30.2% to 30.3%.
The AfD didn't reach the levels projected at the start of the year. Initially, the party had surged over 20%, but falling short of such numbers can be partially attributed to the controversies involving Krah and Bystron.
France: Le Pen's Right-Wing Nationalists Win
Le Pen's National Rally party experienced a significant surge, potentially securing an estimated 32% of the votes. This triumph doubles the number of votes obtained by Macron's camp. As a result, Macron proclaimed plans for an early National Assembly election on June 30 and July 7. "I can't simply end this day as if nothing happened," he remarked.
Macron's camp was already confronting challenges. They've lacked an absolute majority in the National Assembly since 2022. Regulating government affairs has proven challenging, and the focus is now on the looming presidential election scheduled within three years. Macron, who has triumphed in two run-offs against Le Pen, is ineligible for re-election. It remains uncertain which candidate center forces will endorse as a contender against Le Pen. Owing to her moderate depiction, Le Pen's daughter Jean-Marie Le Pen's successor has managed to make the party appealing to the middle class.
Austria: FPO Leads for the First Time in a National Election
The FPO now boasts a clear lead in an Austrian election for the first time. In the aftermath of preliminary results, the FPO is anticipated to gather 25.5% of the votes. The conservative OVP follows with 24.7%. The social democratic SPO trails behind at 23.3%.
In the forthcoming Austrian parliamentary elections, the FPO's Herbert Kickl may find himself approaching the position of Chancellor.
Europe-wide Results: Center-Right in Command
According to preliminary estimates, the EPP with the German parties CDU and CSU stands as the most prominent force in the expanded European Parliament. They're capable of occupying 189 of the 720 seats (formerly 176 of 705).
The right-wing populist party groups ECR and ID have amassed 72 (previously 69) and 58 (previously 49) seats, respectively. The AfD members, however, were neglected from the ID faction's tally.
The second most powerful force in European politics is the Social Democrats, who now hold 135 seats (previously 139). Coming in third are the liberals, who lost 22 seats (previously 102). One of the biggest losers is the Greens, with only 52 seats (previously 71).
What does this mean for European politics?
Difficulty in forming coalitions in the European Parliament may continue. There's also the possibility of a new alliance between the EPP and previously right-wing parties, such as the ECR and ID. Marine Le Pen, a Frenchwoman, and Italian government leader Giorgia Meloni have been discussing this possibility.
It's possible that the EPP will negotiate with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens in the coming days to reach a loose cooperation that could help secure a majority for the election of Leyen. There might also be potential for cooperation with individual right-wing parties. The EPP hadn't ruled out working with Meloni before the election; her Fratelli d'Italia belongs to the ECR faction.
The shift in EU politics toward the right ultimately depends on more than just the majorities in the European Parliament. The power dynamics in the EU Council must also be considered. A significant factor here is the expected result of the French presidential election in 2027.
