Surveys indicate that the SPD in Brandenburg trails behind the AfD.
On a bitter Sunday for Brandenburg's Minister President Woidke, pre-election polls suggest that the AfD outshines the SPD significantly. As many as three parties face the possibility of not securing a spot in the parliament.
Three days prior to Brandenburg's state election on Sunday, an Insa survey shows the AfD's continued lead over the SPD, led by Minister President Dietmar Woidke, in partnership with "Märkische Oderzeitung", "Lausitzer Rundschau" and "Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung". The AfD, under top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, stands at 28%, while the SPD, under Woidke, follows with 25%.
The CDU under top candidate Jan Redmann is in third place with 16%, with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) led by top candidate Robert Crumbach trailing behind at 14%. The Greens and Free Voters are both at 4%, while The Left reaches 3%. These last three parties may not surpass the 5% threshold, consequently missing out on representation in the Potsdam state parliament. However, they can still hope for direct mandate seats, according to the 'basic mandate clause'.
A single direct mandate suffices for parliament entry
In the 2019 election, the Greens and Free Voters each secured a direct mandate, although neither party was heavily reliant on it. The Greens garnered 10.8%, while Free Voters managed 5.0%. The Left at 10.7% bagged four direct mandates in 2014.
The SPD emerged as the winner in 2019 with 26.2%, followed by the AfD at 23.5%. The SPD consequently forged a coalition with the CDU, which had 15.6%, and the Greens. This alliance has been governing the state ever since, but a majority would evade them based on the new poll's findings.
Even a collaboration between SPD and CDU against AfD and BSW would fall short of a majority. Given that other parties shun collaboration with the AfD, the BSW could potentially find favor, considering ongoing talks of involvement in CDU-led governments in Saxony and Thuringia.
Woidke hints at resignation
Minister President Woidke has signaled his intention to step down as head of government if the SPD falls short of first place – a scenario hinted at in other polls recently.
Insa interrogated 1,000 eligible voters in Brandenburg from last Monday to this Monday for their stance on elections. The FDP, which last entered the state parliament in 2009, is reported at 2% in this survey. In the 2015 election, the FDP scored 4.1%. Other parties remain at 4.1% in this poll.
The result of the recent Insa survey, conducted from last Monday to this Monday, indicates that 'The survey' placed the AfD ahead of the SPD, led by Minister President Dietmar Woidke, with 28% and 25% respectively, raising concerns for the SPD's representation in the Potsdam state parliament.
In light of these polls, Minister President Woidke has hinted at the possibility of stepping down if the SPD fails to secure the first place, suggesting a potential change in leadership if 'The survey' continues to reflect these trends.
