Surveys indicate potential repercussions following Trump's criticism.
President Biden is facing a decline in popular opinion, but new data suggests that if he were to run against Donald Trump again, the outcome of the hush money trial could tip the election in his favor.
Trump has always prided himself on being the "President of the People's Hearts." Regardless of the allegations against him, the silent majority doesn't seem to mind. After all, Trump was elected in 2016 despite his numerous controversies. His misogyny, affairs, and fraudulent university were all under the radar. Trump has repeatedly painted himself as an innocent victim, constantly yelling "witch hunt!" through bullhorns and social media.
In the Manhattan hush money trial, Trump was found guilty for the first time in a criminal trial: for falsifying documents to hide election law violations. During the trial, Biden hinted that his administration had orchestrated the prosecution, but this wouldn't affect his chances in the November election. New surveys reveal that the verdict could have political consequences; some even consider it crucial. The November election is therefore more uncertain than ever. If Trump were to run again, the hush money trial could cost him the win.
Specifically, independent voters were vocal about their opinions: 21% stated that because of the verdict against Trump, they would be less likely to vote for him, while only 5% said they would be more likely to vote for him. This leaves a negative impact on Trump at 22%, while a positive impact at 6% for all voters combined.
However, these numbers could change with further events. The sentencing announcement is scheduled for July 11. There are still television debates, nominating conventions, and much more that could become campaign issues.
Biden in a Popularity Slump
In the so-called "Battleground States," which are crucial in the near future, Trump and Biden are in a dead heat, with a slight advantage for the challenger: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are their battlegrounds. Among Republicans, few will defect; 80% believe Trump was framed by Biden. The verdict has little impact on them. However, it matters greatly to others: Just as in 2016, the main motivation for Biden voters is their opposition to Trump.
For the Democrats, it's all about mobilizing their core voters and winning over independents. Only 2-3% of eligible voters are true swing voters without a clear allegiance. Biden is currently in a historical popularity slump. Only around 40% of American citizens are satisfied with him. No president has been re-elected with such low approval ratings.
Despite the unusual times. Since Trump's election in 2016, earlier assumptions about American voting behavior have been proven wrong on several occasions. For instance, the percentage of those who both rejected Biden and Trump was historically high: 25%. Nothing seems to have changed that.
Third candidates with little hope
Dissatisfaction can't be exploited by anyone for real. Of the three other presidential candidates, only independent Robert F. Kennedy has a tiny chance: Perhaps this, too, will collapse if he doesn't qualify for the television debate on the 27th of June. Kennedy would at least theoretically need to be on the ballots in sufficient states to win the election. He is far from that.
Trump and Biden are expected to face off in a television debate again, according to all predictions, just as they did in 2020. Since the Republican refused to let the Democrats speak during the last debate, there is a new rule: When one speaks, the other's microphone will be muted. Biden won't allow himself to be distracted by Trump's criticism. After all, the numbers now clearly show: Trump is vulnerable.
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In the context of potential candidates for the US presidential election 2024, Joe Biden's popularity has been on a decline, but if he were to run against Donald Trump again, new survey data suggests that the outcome of Stormy Daniels' hush money trial could significantly impact the election, potentially tipping it in Biden's favor.
Despite being found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial, Donald Trump still has a strong following among his supporters, giving him a potential advantage if he decides to run for president again in 2024.
