Sunak will lose, Starmer will win - and Farage will wait and see

On this Thursday, Sunak is certain to be replaced as Prime Minister. The winner could be the Labour Party. However, the real danger for the British Conservatives - and the kingdom as a whole - comes from another source: Nigel Farage.

It doesn't seem like the Brexit Referendum was eight years ago. And yet much has changed in the United Kingdom since then, mostly for the worse: the Corona Pandemic, the death of the Queen, the collapse of the economy under Prime Minister Liz Truss. However, one constant has remained: the Conservative Party. For fourteen years, the Tories have been in power - what remains when they are inevitably defeated on Thursday, is chaos, a divided society, and the foreshadowing of things possibly getting even worse.

He is still convinced that the Brexit Referendum was the right way forward under the circumstances, said former Prime Minister David Cameron in mid-June at a press conference of the Foreign Press Association in London. Cameron was the one who had called for the referendum. Since then, no one has managed to hold the position for as long as him.

Many Reasons to Vote Against the Tories

Cameron's return to a cabinet position shows how much the Conservative Party's ideas have dwindled. And yet the country is livelier today than in 2010, finds Prime Minister Sunak - back then, Cameron took office from Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown. One of his justifications for the positive balance: British schoolchildren are the best readers in the international comparison. It seems surprising, given that public education spending in the country has actually decreased in real terms by eight percent over the past fourteen years - that's around 10 billion pounds, or 12 billion Euros. In addition, in more than 200 schools, inadequate concrete or asbestos was found last year, forcing many children to learn in tents or containers.

And things are going badly for people in the UK in many other ways as well. For example, health-wise. The NHS health system is on the brink of collapse. Even before they took office, there were 2.5 million people waiting for a hospital appointment. In 2019, before the pandemic, there were 4.6 million; the record was only reached in September 2023: 7.8 million people on the hospital waiting list. And that, despite Sunak's earlier promise to reduce waiting times.

Those not waiting for a doctor's appointment have it no better. Living costs have risen enormously in recent years, but wages have not. Working parents with children are particularly affected, as a survey shows: in 2023, 3 million children lived in households where both parents worked below the poverty line. No wonder then, that more and more people are relying on food banks. While the Trussell Trust, which operates the largest food bank network in the UK, had around 35 centers in 2010, there were almost 1300 between 2019 and 2020, and they are still needed today.

Sunak Still Acts as if He Could Win

Sunak still behaves as if he could win, but the writing is on the wall. The Conservatives have been in power for fourteen years, and the country is on the brink of chaos. The economy is in shambles, the NHS is collapsing, and the education system is in disarray. The people are suffering, and the divisions in society are deeper than ever. The Labour Party, under the leadership of Starmer, is poised to take power, and the country is ready for a change. The question is, will Sunak and the Conservatives be able to hold on until Thursday? Or will they be swept away by the tide of history? Only time will tell.

Voters are fed up. In the latest surveys, Sunak and the Conservatives trail Labour by twenty percentage points. Yet Sunak, at least outwardly, continues to give the impression that he can win the election. In response to a question from BBC presenter Laura Kuenssberg about whether he would still be Prime Minister by Friday, Sunak replied: "Yes. I'm fighting very hard and I believe the people are gradually waking up and recognizing the true danger a Labour government poses."

This "danger" is not discernible from the opposition's manifesto. In fact, it appears rather unremarkable, dull, and most importantly, unachievable without raising taxes. The Labour Party's manifesto shows that they have realized that this election is not about election promises. This election is an emotional, very personal one, as it is about Morals and political orientation. Despite the fact that trust in British political parties in general is rather low: Keir Starmer is trusted by 36% of voters; Rishi Sunak by only 16%. However, there is someone they trust just as much, and he poses a real threat to the Conservatives: Nigel Farage.

"The Conservatives have done a bad job, Labour is also bad, so we now need to find a middle ground, and that's Nigel Farage," says a voter as we report in the southern English seaside resort of Brighton. A "middle ground" is not what Nigel Farage is, however. The right-wing populist caused outrage recently when he blamed the West for Russia's war in Ukraine in a British TV interview. Farage became famous for the Brexit campaign as leader of the then anti-EU party UKIP. Later, he joined the Brexit Party, which now calls itself "Reform UK."

Farage has another plan

Farage has attempted to get elected to Parliament seven times so far, without success. However, the eighth, or even the ninth attempt, could be the one that succeeds, as Reform UK is only a few points behind the Conservatives in the polls. Reform UK will not be well represented in Parliament despite this, due to the British electoral system, in which the candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat. Even if a party receives 16% of the votes nationwide, it could end up with only 1% of the seats.

However, Nigel Farage has another plan, as he has observed at the Reform Party in Canada. In 1993, Canadian right-wing populists siphoned off so many votes from the previously ruling Conservatives that the party was destroyed, and its members split up among new parties - something the Tories in London are increasingly afraid of. Just as Brexit has divided the country, the past few years have also divided the Tories. Five prime ministers in fourteen years and none of them have managed to keep the party together. The right-wing faction within the Conservatives could ultimately open the door for Farage and Reform UK at the next general election.

Gloomy prospects, not just for the Tories, but for Great Britain as a whole. Labour will likely not be able to solve the mess the Tories have created in the next legislative term. This could give Farage and Reform UK the chance to win the House and the famous black door with the ten on it at the next general election.

The potential successor to Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister on Thursday could be the Labour Party, but the Conservative Party's real challenge comes from Nigel Farage and his party, Reform UK.
David Cameron, the former Prime Minister, still believes that the Brexit Referendum was the right decision, despite the challenges facing Great Britain, such as the economic collapse under Prime Minister Liz Truss.
Despite the bleak situation, the Conservative Party has remained a constant in British politics for fourteen years, even with Cameron's return to a cabinet position and the party's dwindling ideas.
The NHS health system is on the brink of collapse, with 7.8 million people waiting for a hospital appointment, demonstrating the worsening conditions under the Conservative Party's rule.
The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is seen as the party that can bring about change and heal the divisions in society, with the Conservatives trailing behind in the polls.
Nigel Farage and Reform UK pose a significant threat to the Conservative Party, with Farage's right-wing populist views gaining traction and the British electoral system potentially limiting their representation in Parliament, even if they receive a significant number of votes.