Strategies for Victory for Harris and Trump are outlined in this piece.
In a month, on November 5th, the U.S. will either see Donald Trump re-elected as the country's President for a second term or witness Kamala Harris becoming the first female President of the United States. At the moment, there's no clear favorite, but there are distinct paths to victory.
Trump or Harris? The question of whether the 45th U.S. President will also become the 47th, or if the current Vice President will create history as the first woman in the White House, will be answered in four weeks on a Tuesday. Let's take a look at the current state of the U.S. election campaign.
Is there a favorite to win?
Not really, while most national polls show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by about two percentage points, this is not particularly significant due to the unique U.S. electoral system. Currently, the election outcome is up for grabs. The unreliability of national polls is evident from the previous two presidential elections. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead by nearly five percentage points a month before the election, but Trump won more electoral votes, which ultimately mattered. In 2020, Trump was 8.5 percentage points behind Joe Biden a month before the election, but the race was much closer than anticipated, and Biden only won after a prolonged vote count.
Was it wise for the Democrats to choose Kamala Harris instead of allowing an open candidate competition within the Democratic Party?
Probably, yes. Harris is more well-known as the Vice President than other potential candidates would have been, which is an important factor with little time left until the election. An open competition for the nomination might have caused excessive internal turmoil within the party. It would have been challenging to unite for the election afterward.
What's currently working in favor of Kamala Harris?
Since there's no favorite, it's more about subtle factors. Harris benefits from painting an optimistic picture of the United States as a land of opportunities, an "opportunity economy," which closely resembles the "American Dream." Trump, conversely, focuses on negativity, emphasizing what the U.S. has lost and vowing to bring it back. Harris hopes her vision of a new American dream will resonate more than Trump's fear-mongering about Democrats supposedly pushing the U.S. into socialism.
What's currently working in favor of Donald Trump?
Many Americans are well-acquainted with Trump's ideologies, helping him mobilize his base. Harris is less clear on certain issues compared to her opponent. Furthermore, there's a prevailing fear among Democrats that Trump might pull another surprise in the final stretch of the campaign. A lot can occur in four weeks during a U.S. presidential election, which often feels like an eternity. In 2012, it was Hillary Clinton's professional emails on a private server, and in 2016, it was the "laptop from hell" belonging to Biden's son Hunter. It's possible that another similar incident might occur this time around.
Which states will ultimately decide the election?
It's Likely That Seven "Swing States" Will Decide the Outcome. Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest. Georgia and North Carolina in the Southeast, the so-called "Rust Belt" with the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Northeast. In all other states, it seems that the winning candidate is already decided before election day. Among the contested "battleground states," Pennsylvania is the most intriguing. Not only is the state south of New York the "most valuable" with its 19 electoral votes, but the U.S. portal "Five Thirty Eight" has calculated that Pennsylvania statistically decides the election in 18 out of 100 cases. A remarkably high value considering there are 50 states. Following that are Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia, which decide the election in 12 out of 100 cases.
What is the "Easiest" Path to the Presidency for Kamala Harris?
If Harris manages to capture the entire "Rust Belt" like Joe Biden, the presidency is virtually guaranteed for her. If there are no surprises elsewhere, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would provide Harris with the exact required majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College. If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, she only has a chance if she wins Georgia or North Carolina. If she succeeds in that, it would come down to Arizona or Nevada.
What is the "Easiest" Path to the Presidency for Donald Trump?
If Trump wins the same states as in 2020, the Republican candidate would have 235 electoral votes, including the contested North Carolina. However, in any scenario, Trump must necessarily win at least one state in the "Rust Belt." If the 78-year-old wins in Pennsylvania, the majority in Georgia would be sufficient to return to the White House. If Trump does not win Pennsylvania but Michigan, he would require Arizona or Nevada in addition to Georgia. If Trump only wins Wisconsin, not only Georgia but also Arizona would be a "must-win" for Trump.
What is Key in the Final Stretch of the Campaign?
For both parties, the most crucial task will be to mobilize their voters. It's about convincing those who lean towards one of the two parties to actually vote. There are hardly any real swing voters in the U.S., making up a maximum of three percent of eligible voters. Additionally, in the final stretch, it will be vital not to make any more mistakes. Avoid stumbling and not providing too much attack surface on sensitive topics for one's own clientele is the creed on both sides.
Despite the national polls showing a slight lead for Kamala Harris, she emphasizes the opportunity that the United States presents as a land of possibilities, while Trump relies on fear-mongering about Democrats pushing the country towards socialism. I'm not going to predict the outcome, but it's crucial for both candidates to focus on mobilizing their voters in the final stretch of the campaign.
