Storms have passed, leaving behind chilly conditions for the sheep.
The mark of the harsh weather in the southern regions has come to an end, but the respite is only temporary. However, the so-called sheep's back is approaching, bringing with it the threat of freezing temperatures at night, particularly in certain areas. As the second half of the week commences, summer thunderstorms will sweep across the nation, albeit in an isolated fashion.
ntv.de: Has the most severe weather in the south finally come to an end? Will the improvement persist?
Björn Alexander: Regrettably, only for the time being. As early as Thursday, the likelihood of showers and summer thunderstorms will increase significantly under humid and excessively hot conditions. Although they won't initially lead to widespread, heavy, and sustained rain, there's a possibility of recurring intense summer thunderstorms capable of producing torrential downpours in certain regions.
How much rain should the public expect?
The models indicate that there will be moderate to heavy rainfall to the south of the Main Line, ranging from 20 to 40 liters per square meter. However, the rainfall potential could be more substantial from the Danube to the Alps, with the models forecasting up to 100 liters in some instances. It's essential to note that the exact location of the storms remains uncertain.
Is there any better summer weather to anticipate in the future?
The dismal weather in the south seems to continue for the coming days, as suggested by the long-term predictions. Models indicate a rainfall total of up to 150 liters per square meter for the Alps, and sometimes up to 200 liters. Moreover, current estimates assess the entire month south of the Danube as prone to rainfall. Consequently, the overall outlook appears bleak.
How is the summer progressing in the rest of Germany?
The meteorological summer, which began on June 1st, has experienced a rocky start this year. Consequently, the long-term forecast for June projects a slightly below-average mean temperature trend, an unusual occurrence during the era of climate change. Conversely, the North Sea-Scandinavian low "Swantje" is making its presence felt in the north of the country.
What ramifications do these conditions yield?
For the North Sea region, it will continue to be a mixed bag. The coasts will experience brisk winds and temperatures hovering around 16°C.
What is the weather like between the stormy south and the cool North Sea-Scandinavian low?
The situation improves for this middle section. High "Xenophilius" acts as a buffer, pushing between the humid and stormy air in the south and the Scandinavian low. This means it'll be mostly dry and comfortably warm, averaging 20°C.
What does the term "sheep's back" signify?
The sheep's back is a reference to a comparatively chilly and changeable phase occurring in June. The duration of this weather condition, also known as the singularity or the farmer's rule, spans the entire month. Typically, it cools down across a wide area, with a 80% likelihood of occurring between the 4th and 25th of June. However, the peak cooling period is around the 10th to 12th of June, when frosty conditions can be expected at night, particularly in higher-altitude areas.
Should we brace ourselves for another run-in with freezing temperatures?
Cold spells may still be on the horizon, particularly in the southwest and southern regions. While there's no nationwide cold wave in the offing, ground frost is possible in the mid-mountains as well as Lüneburg Heath, southern Schleswig-Holstein, and parts of Emsland. Temperatures could potentially dip below the freezing point.
A brief look at the upcoming weather:
Wet weather is expected to show up in the North Sea and along the Alpine foothills to Saxony. Bavaria, in particular, faces the risk of heavy rainfall. On the brighter side, much of the country remains dry throughout Thursday. Temperatures range from 15°C at the coast to 26°C near the Upper Rhine.
Temperature predictions for Friday:
The range is between 16 and 26°C, with the hottest temperatures in the Upper Rhine region. More sunshine is expected in the east, while rain risk is higher in the south and north.
The outlook for the weekend:
The weather pattern will remain similar. It's likely to be mostly dry and pleasant in the broad middle, with more clouds and possible thunderstorms and heavy rain in the south. The temperature forecast is 26°C on Saturday and 23°C on Sunday. The rest of the country can expect temperatures ranging from 16 to 21°C.
How will the week progress at the beginning of next week?
In the northwest, the skies appear to be taking a turn for the rainy, while the rain situation in the south could grow more complex. A new stormy and prolonged rain event is expected to develop by Tuesday, which should eventually dissipate. Elsewhere in the country, sunny skies and temperatures varying from 16 to 23°C will dominate. In the middle of the week, a general trend toward warming weather can be observed. However, it's still uncertain whether a high-pressure system covering the whole of Germany will materialize.
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Despite the current respite from extreme weather, the threat of freezing temperatures at night persists in certain areas as the 'sheep's back' approach. International meteorological studies suggest that summer thunderstorms will sweep across the nation, albeit in an isolated and temporary fashion. These storms may bring intense weather conditions, potentially leading to recurring intense summer thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall in certain regions.
