Upcoming European ballots. - Steadily gaining ground
Right-wing political factions have achieved notable victories in the recent European elections. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's party Fratelli d'Italia, belonging to the right-wing, emerged as the leading candidate on Sunday. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National party in France also clinched a win, leading to President Emmanuel Macron announcing a snap election for the National Assembly.
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) secured the most votes, whereas the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw its best results yet and came in second place behind the Union.
Both existing right-wing alliances, ECR and ID, made some headway throughout Europe. However, the pro-European camp remained the largest in the European Parliament by an enormous margin. Even if all the right-wing factions were to unite, they might barely accumulate the required 200 seats and be far from the majority, which is set at 361 seats.
Victory in the European elections was captured by the center-right alliance EPP, led by German lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen. Von der Leyen, a CDU politician, is likely to seek another term as President of the EU Commission.
Italy's Meloni Takes Charge
Fratelli d'Italia's share, as per Rai, of the vote surged to 27.7% - a significant jump in comparison to the 2019 European election. It took second place with a left-wing alliance centered on the social-democratic PD at 23.7%.
Meloni, who represented the Fratelli d'Italia and is rooted in post-fascist origins, had already been holding the position of Prime Minister in a coalition of three right-wing parties since October 2022. This victory is most likely to amplify her influence in the European arena.
Germany: AfD's Strong Showing - Lacking Expectations
This European election also constituted an important test of public opinion in Germany prior to the imminent triplet of state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in September and the national election the following year.
Despite the alleged scandal that surfaced involving their lead candidate, Maximilian Krah, and second string candidate Petr Bystron, the AfD managed to make substantial gains across the nation. With a calculation between 15.8-15.9%, there was an almost 5% increase when compared to 2019. The AfD had initially been leading with over 20% in early polls, but accusations against Krah and Bystron, along with morning votes, led to a downward shift in their projected outcome.
France: Le Pen's Right-Wing Nationalists Triumph
A significant setback for French President Emmanuel Macron, the right-wing nationalist party Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen claimed to secure an estimated 32% of the votes. Consequently, Macron scheduled a snap election for the National Assembly for June 30 and July 7, stating, "I cannot therefore end this day as if nothing had happened."
Macron's weaker centrist bloc had already been weakened, losing its absolute majority in the National Assembly since 2022. Currently, governance has become more challenging due to this. Meanwhile, anticipation surrounding the 2024 presidential election has been amplified, as Macron, who has twice defeated Le Pen in run-offs, is ineligible for a third run. As of now, the center's potential contenders and their potency against Le Pen remain uncertain. The daughter of far-right party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine has portrayed a more moderate approach and strengthened the party's electability in the middle class.
Austria: FPO Sets the Pace Ahead of Autumn Election
This marked the first time Austria saw right-wing populists leading in a national election. In Rai's initial projections, the FPO was expected to gather 25.5% of the votes, followed by the conservative OVP capturing 24.7%. The left-leaning Social Democratic Party, garnering 23.3% of the votes, trailed after them.
Preparing for a new Austrian parliament in the fall, party leader Herbert Kickl's ascendency to become the next Chancellor seems increasingly likely. The Austrian autumn parliamentary election imminently approaches.
Europe-wide Outcome: Center-Right Dominates
After an initial calculation, the EPP, helmed by the German parties CDU and CSU, took the lead in the slightly expanded European Parliament. With 189 of the 720 seats (previously 176 of 705), they captured the top spot.
The right-wing populist party alliances ECR and ID respectively earned 72 and 58 seats, respectively. The AfD deputies were not counted as part of the ID fraction due to their expulsion from it before the election. [23:54, 24-05-22]
The Social Democrats secure the second most seats with 135 (previously held 139 seats), while the Liberals face a loss of 80 seats from 102. The Greens, who previously maintained 71 seats, only succeed in getting 52 seats.
In terms of European politics, this could imply a challenging period in finding a majority within the European Parliament. To determine future power dynamics, it's crucial to observe whether parties from the former right-wing alliances ECR and ID form an alliance, as proposed by Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen in collaboration with Italian government leader Meloni.
It's possible that the EPP, a center-right grouping, will engage in discussions with social democrats, liberals, and greens to forge a loose coalition that could potentially deliver a majority for Leyen's election. While theoretically there might be scope for cooperation with individual right-wing parties, the EPP had previously not ruled out teaming up with Meloni before the elections. Her Fratelli d'Italia is part of the right-conservative ECR faction.
The trajectory of EU politics towards the right relies not just on the majority dynamics in the European Parliament, but also on the power struggles within the EU Council. The forthcoming French presidential election in 2027 could have a major impact, contributing significantly to the overall political landscape.
