Demography - Statistics office forecasts slightly fewer hospital cases
In spite of declining population numbers, Thuringian hospitals are expected to do well according to a study. By the year 2042, experts at the Thuringian Statistics Office predict a slight decrease of 1.4% in the number of stationary hospital patients to 495,600, compared to the year 2022. The population is projected to decrease by 9.5% in the same time period.
Due to population aging, it is predicted that the proportion of elderly patients will increase significantly. This is also associated with an expected increase in diseases that primarily affect older people. For example, the study forecasts a 3.2% increase in cases of heart-circulatory diseases. For tumors or diseases of the musculoskeletal system, a decrease is predicted. In fact, more cancer treatments are now being performed ambulantly.
The Thuringian Statistics Office refers to the fact that factors such as technological progress or changes in mortality rates for individual diagnoses were not taken into account in the calculations. It was also assumed that the demand for medical care in hospitals would remain constant.
Despite the anticipated 9.5% population decrease in Thuringia by 2042, the future of hospitals in Erfurt and the region shows promise, according to the study from the Statistical Office. The study predicts a minimal drop of 1.4% in hospital patients, amounting to 495,600 individuals, due to demographic shifts, with a significant increase in elderly patients and associated diseases such as heart-circulatory diseases. However, the demand for hospital care and specific diagnoses, like tumors or musculoskeletal diseases, was assumed to remain constant in the calculations conducted by the Thuringian Statistics Office.
