Specialists Express Concerns Over Germany's Speed Issue
After stepping into office, Defense Minister Pistorius emphasized the importance of efficient time management. However, economic experts argue that Germany is lagging behind in weapon purchases, with insufficient decisions and funds. Despite this, Germany decided to support Ukraine with 12 self-made howitzers. Defense Minister Pistorius announced this at a meeting of Ukraine supporters in Ramstein last week. These weapon systems, characterized by their high precision and cutting-edge technology, are urgently needed by Kyiv's troops. The order is placed with German manufacturers KMW and Rheinmetall.
The situation leaves room for questioning: Why not leverage this opportunity to equip the German military as well? According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), this would not only be beneficial but also urgent. Over the past 20 years, the German Army's howitzer count has dropped from nearly 1,000 to over 100. In 2021, the army had only 121 artillery howitzers, as per the IfW report.
Shortfall of over 2,000 combat tanks
The inventory has been gradually replenished. Recall: February 2022, Ukraine invasion, turning point, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz views Germany as "military leading power in Europe", special fund of 100 billion, etc. Since then, the federal government has been ordering around eight to nine more howitzers per year for the troops at this pace. To reach, for instance, the 2004 stock level at this pace, it would take: 100 years.
The IfW not only studied the acquisition of howitzers but also analyzed the situations with combat jets, tanks, or armored vehicles. The result: inadequate supply. In 2021, the German Armed Forces had 339 combat tanks available. In 2004, a stock of 2,398 was considered appropriate, 2,000 more. There are also significant gaps in other critical weapon classes.
When Germany delivered 18 Leopards from its stock to Ukraine, it reordered 18 Leopards in May 2023, although a framework contract with the manufacturer existed for 123 vehicles. Criticism was raised by security experts at the time. The purchase of the remaining 105 combat tanks was finally approved by the Budget Committee in July 2024, over a year later.
According to the IfW research, Germany has a "speed problem" in procurement. This criticism has existed for decades, but the IfW now provides detailed evidence for various weapon categories, showing that despite special funds and turning points, not enough has improved yet. The result should serve as an alarm. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius had announced a new direction in procurement shortly after taking office: "From now on, time will be the top priority in all procurements."
In the future, the troops' experts would share their knowledge about new product requirements earlier, and then the process would be completed, Pistorius announced. A "Freeze of Design" should prevent the procurement process from being slowed down by ever-new special wishes - a common practice in the past.
The IfW study concludes that Minister Pistorius has partially achieved success. The "100 years" for howitzers is offset by a decision to opt for the new F-35 fighter jet, which is to replace the outdated Tornados. This is a gigantic project that the grand coalition under Angela Merkel could never agree on. Pistorius has brought it to fruition.
However, the overall view of the procurement process indicates that the new maxims - speed, no gold-plated solutions at exorbitant prices, but buying market-available material - are still not being consistently applied. For example, the Union opposition has been waiting for months for the final word on the purchase of new deployment boats for the Marine Special Forces Command (KSM). The procedure initially failed due to excessive requirements from the troops when Pistorius took office.
A new attempt is now being made with a new approach and the goal of starting the competition by mid-2023, having the purchase approved by parliament by mid-2024, and receiving the first boat by mid-2025. However, it is now nearing the end of 2024, and the Union is still waiting for the purchase approval for the boats to appear on the Budget Committee's agenda.
Why is the procurement process lagging behind schedule? The Defense Ministry has yet to provide an explanation to the opposition. "Instead of providing the special forces with new deployment boats just in time, we willingly march towards the next capability gap," says Union budget politician Ingo Gädechens. "The soldiers are right to ask: Why can't even Boris Pistorius successfully implement such manageable projects?"
The example of the deployment boats reflects the IfW statistics: "German procurement procedures are still slow and bureaucratic," the economists explain. They advocate for Germany to integrate more strongly into the European defense market. They see the 12 different tank types used in Europe's armies as evidence of shortsighted industrial policy. Joint orders would incentivize industry investment and also reduce unit prices.
Essentially, the ability to equip ourselves with contemporary weaponry for self-defense hinges on the defense budget, a point emphasized by researchers in Kiel. They believe this budget is insufficiently large. As per the traffic light coalition's plan, the budget should have escalated steadily post-2022 to meet NATO's goal of allocating 2% of GDP. However, that's not the reality now. The federal government barely manages to hit the 2% mark, thanks to extra resources and miscellaneous expenses.
In 2025, a modest increase of 1.25 billion euros in the budget is planned, primarily to cover salary increases in the defense sector, leaving no leftover cash for weapon procurement. No further budget increases are on the horizon for 2026.
During a Bundestag debate on Wednesday, CDU defense politician Johann Wadephul was forthright: Investment spending would actually decrease, making the defense budget a reduction in funding. "You're essentially cutting the Bundeswehr's budget," Wadephul summarized. This viewpoint isn't contested by the Federal Minister of Defense.
Instead, the Minister underlines the Union's role in creating the Bundeswehr's current predicament during their tenure in power. Pistorius additionally mentions: "We need to boost our security expenditure in the near future, even beyond the current 2% of GDP. This is an indisputable fact." Unfortunately, Chancellor Olaf Scholz hasn't been swayed by this argument yet. As such, a stationary defense budget for 2026 is likely on the cards, as opposed to a decrease.
In light of the budget constraints, some are questioning if Defense Minister Pistorius could consider investing in modernizing the German military's equipment as well, given the significant shortfall in weapon categories such as combat tanks. Despite Pistorius' emphasis on efficient time management and his efforts to expedite procurement processes, the latter still seem to be slow and bureaucratic, as highlighted by the IfW study.
