SPD factional disagreement on leadership path surfaces
In a notable shift, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is experiencing unprecedented internal strife and disagreements in both ideological stance and personnel matters. Following the poor performance in the European and local elections on June 9th, all factions within the party are demanding action, yet they propose contrasting solutions.
Since the weekend, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been juggling two crises: the financial squabble within the federal government and the intensifying ideological conflict within his own party. Upon returning from the Ukraine summit in Switzerland, Scholz has been busy attending a party presidium meeting and budget negotiations with Economic Minister Robert Habeck and Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Domestic issues demand immediate attention, prompting Scholz to cut his summit participation short.
The SPD is troubled: the dismal election results from June 9th have raised concerns among party members, who view the upcoming elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, Thuringia, and the federal elections next year as potential challenges. Many mandate holders worry about their positions. The long-suppressed, post-2021 election success-fueled ideological debate within the party is gathering momentum. It centers around identifying "our people" and understanding their desires.
More SPD or more Nordic-style policies?
Formally, these questions have been introduced to the SPD by the Democratic Left Forum 21 (DL21), a left-wing faction within the party. Since the weekend, DL21 has been advocating for a change in government policies. In a member survey, the forum aims to vote on the SPD's continued participation in fiscal policy largely dictated by the Free Democratic Party (FDP). The left wing of the party pushes for abandoning the stringent debt brake and a significant investment push, particularly in the areas of Social, Education, and Healthcare. They view this as the essence of the Social Democrats.
However, the Conservatives from the Seeheimer Circle hold a different perspective. They believe the key to winning back voters lies in focusing on migration issues: "We should closely study the course of the Nordic Social Democrats," said Dirk Wiese to the "Tagesspiegel." Denmark's social democratic government leader Mette Frederiksen promotes a particularly stringent approach to immigration within the EU. SPD Deputy Faction Leader Wiese is also the Chairman of the Seeheimer Circle. SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil is seen as part of the faction. The Seeheimer Circle is particularly vocal in their support of Scholz. Wiese defended himself against criticism from Juso Chairman Philipp Türmer, who views large-scale deportation promises as a betrayal of social democratic values in the "Tagesspiegel." Türmer is currently the SPD's most vocal internal critic of Scholz.
Conflict within the Ranks
The SPD is currently grappling with an internal power struggle, which party chairman Klingbeil had carefully managed until now. Saskia Esken, the current party chair, and General Secretary Kevin Kühnt are part of the party left. SPD parliamentary leader Rolf Mützenich also belongs to this group, but the majority of MPs now align behind the "Seeheimers." Debates revolve around this ideological divide: party leftists demand a stronger SPD profile from Scholz in the traffic light coalition. The opposing side expresses frustration with former adversary Kühnt, who was responsible for the unsuccessful election campaign. It remains unclear whether these intra-party remarks are merely expressions of frustration or the early signs of an impending explosion.
The outcome of this conflict depends significantly on Chancellor Scholz: Will he find a way to suspend the debt brake in discussions with Habeck and Lindner, referring to the situation in Ukraine? If so, the pressure would immediately ease, and the traffic light coalition would not have to discuss citizen's income or pension cuts and could also allocate more funds to boost the economy. Alternatively, will it continue with Linders extensive savings plans, which Scholz supported publicly in May? Reduced social expenditures alongside steadily increasing military expenditures are hard pills to swallow for many SPD members. This sentiment was not limited to party leftists. The SPD has been intensively discussing with Scholz about the appropriate lessons following the European election on Tuesday.
Ukraine Policy Not Rewarded
Another point of contention within the SPD is their future approach to Ukraine and Russia. "Moderation," "peace," and "security" were supposed to be key words associated with Scholz during the European election campaign. His measured support for Ukraine was intended to benefit the SPD. However, the question arises whether Scholz' "yes, but" policy resonates with his own constituency. The SPD lost nearly 600,000 people each to the AfD and FDP in the European election, who firmly oppose military support for Ukraine. The shift towards AfD and FDP may have been driven primarily by Eastern Germans who still voted for the SPD in 2021.
Scholz' positioning as a stability anchor has failed to materialize. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is seen as a potential alternative Chancellor by some. However, SPD leftists are not swayed by Pistorius due to his vocal calls for increased military spending and conscription. Speculation about a Chancellor candidate Pistorius may not subside, but for now, the party debate centers around the substantive direction: implementing more leftist policies or maintaining the traffic light coalition in the hope of a trend reversal in the coming months?
2021: Scholz Ascends as Chancellor Amidst Feeble Competition
Lack of popular affection towards Scholz is palpable, as reflected in the current public opinion polls. However, his pledge to "respect" the working middle class was a cornerstone of his successful federal election campaign. Among the promises kept was the implementation of a 12 Euro minimum wage, particularly benefiting residents in the east. Yet, inflation caused by the war eroded any income gains. The SPD now vows to run on the promise of a 15 Euro minimum wage in the next election, also boasting their pension package, which incrementally raises retirement age and pension contributions.
Criticism from the Right: Insufficient Action in Immigration Policy
Among less progressive circles of the SPD, skepticism has grown that SPD voters are motivated solely by social welfare assurances. Alongside stable, well-paid jobs, addressing current issues such as pension poverty and potential unemployment are priorities. "Security is paramount," Scholz often tells people. Following the Mannheim knife attack, the Chancellor expressed support for the expulsion of criminals to Afghanistan and Syria.
According to a "Spiegel" report, Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is already in discussions with neighboring Uzbekistan regarding a deportation route for unwanted Afghans in Germany. The challenge with immigration policy: significant reductions in migrant numbers seldom occur swiftly and consistently. There's always room for improvement. The opposition capitalizes on this issue.
Divided Society, Divided SPD
Migration serves as a questionable campaign issue for a centrist left party like the SPD. This is especially the case in the east, where the AfD, which advocates for "re-migration," is the strongest force. The SPD cannot afford to neglect the east, not solely due to the upcoming three state elections. In the federal election, almost all eastern constituencies voted for the SPD, except Saxony and Thuringia, which went to the AfD's direct candidates. In the European election, almost all eastern constituencies leaned towards the AfD. Surprisingly, Thuringia's Interior Minister and SPD's state election top candidate, Georg Maier, was among the first Social Democrats to call for deportations to Afghanistan.
The ideological debate within the SPD mirrors the polarization of the country it governs: urban, particularly western Germany, focuses on different issues compared to the countryside, especially the east. Age differences add to the mix. The party aims to cater to everyone, but currently lacks broad appeal. According to Infratest dimap, 33 percent of workers voted for the AfD, 24 percent for the CDU/CSU, and only 12 percent for the SPD. Those who view the SPD as "their own" have yet to cast their votes based on social welfare assurances.
Upcoming elections offer no advantage for the SPD, which remains far from its last Bundestag election result, which was almost 26 percent. Calling for a confidence vote against the FDP - "Concede or activate the traffic light!" - seems unattractive. The proposed members' consultation could backfire instead. The Democratic Left Party 21 should be mindful of Scholz's aversion to pressure tactics.
Read also:
- In response to the demands from the Democratic Left Forum 21, SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil is under pressure to shift the party's budget policy, abandoning the strict debt brake and implementing substantial investments in Social, Education, and Healthcare sectors.
- During the Ukraine summit in Switzerland, Chancellor Olaf Scholz found himself caught between the ongoing internal strife within the SPD and the financial squabble within the federal government, prompting him to cut his participation short.
- Following the European election results, Kevin Kühnert, a prominent member of the SPD's left wing, has been heavily criticized by many SPD members for his role in the unsuccessful campaign, creating tension within the party and fueling the ideological divide.
