Southern and particularly arid regions are experiencing a surge in popularity compared to Merz.
The traffic light coalition has handed the Union a difficult situation with its record-breaking unpopularity. At the moment, the CDU and CSU just need to score a goal. The question is, who will be the Union's chancellor candidate to take the shot? Friedrich Merz, the CDU chairman, is the clear frontrunner but remains cautious. Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder reaffirmed his interest following the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. There's also a third candidate whose intentions aren't fully clear but becomes a more serious option thanks to the recent RTL/ntv Trendbarometer.
The Forsa Institute conducted a representative survey and asked: "Which Union candidate would be best suited for the position of Federal Chancellor?" The options were Merz, Söder, and North Rhine-Westphalia Minister President Hendrik Wüst. 31% of respondents chose Wüst, 23% chose Söder, and 16% chose Merz. 30% remained undecided or didn't have a preference.
Before Merz became the CDU federal chairman, he was viewed as the hope of the CDU's eastern associations. However, support for him hasn't increased in the east: 14% of respondents in the eastern states chose Merz, while 23% chose Söder. Wüst managed to secure 27% of the votes in the eastern states. Union supporters are still undecided, and each of the three men gets about a third of the votes.
Söder has been criticized within the CDU following his actions in 2021 when he torpedoed Armin Laschet's chancellor candidacy and never apologized. However, Wüst seems to gain more support from the center-left camp: 47% of SPD supporters and 51% of Green supporters favor Wüst.
Among supporters of all parties, Merz is the least popular candidate. The only exception is among Green supporters, where Merz comes in second with 9%. Söder, who has been critical of the Greens, comes in third with 5%.
Merz managed to secure a small victory by being more popular than SPD Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Trendbarometer showed that 27% would choose Merz if only the two were available, while 23% would choose Scholz. However, this is a slight decrease from last week, when both were tied at 25%.
At a traditional Political Breakfast in Gillamoos, Söder stated, "I think the post of Minister President is the most beautiful one. But I wouldn't shy away from taking responsibility for our country." Meanwhile, the CSU has repeatedly stated that Merz is the favorite for the chancellor candidacy, but the decision is still up in the air.
Merz responded to Söder's renewed application with the words, "The statement by Markus Söder this morning has no news value." Merz and the CDU chairman have agreed to discuss the issue with each other later in the summer and then propose a decision to the executive committees of the CDU and CSU. "And that's what we'll stick to."
The CDU's current predicament in regaining popularity stems from the traffic light coalition's record-breaking unpopularity, and the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are keenly seeking a solution. According to recent surveys, North Rhine-Westphalia Minister President Hendrik Wüst has gained considerable support as a potential chancellor candidate within the Union, garnering 31% of respondents' votes.
Despite Friedrich Merz being the CDU chairman and a clear frontrunner in the internal race, he only managed to secure 16% of the votes in the representative survey, showing that support for him hasn't significantly increased.
