Söder is in the poll on the Chancellor question before Merz
In autumn, the Union will decide on the chancellor candidacy. In a survey, CSU leader Söder is currently leading by a significant margin over CDU chairman Merz. And among Union supporters, his approval is even higher.
In the race for the Union's chancellor candidacy, CSU leader Markus Söder is gaining more support from the population, according to ARD-Deutschlandtrend. In a survey by Infratest dimap, the Bavarian minister-president would be a good chancellor candidate for 38 percent of respondents, four percentage points more than at the end of May. North Rhine-Westphalia's minister-president Hendrik Wüst comes in at 36 percent (plus 2), and CDU chairman Friedrich Merz is in third place with 27 percent (plus 1). Among Union supporters, Söder is even further ahead with 59 percent, compared to Merz and Wüst (both 47 percent).
The next federal election is scheduled for September 28, 2025. Merz and Söder have agreed to make a joint decision on the chancellor candidacy in autumn. However, several CDU minister-presidents have already claimed a say in the matter.
The CDU chairman, who is also the opposition leader in the Bundestag, is considered the clear favorite, even in Söder's view. In early July, Söder told Welt-TV that he could only consider becoming the chancellor candidate if Merz asked him to. When pressed for further details, Söder said that Merz's request would be the only condition that would make him consider it.
If the federal election were held next Sunday, the Union would be the strongest force. According to Infratest dimap, CDU and CSU currently have 32 percent, one percentage point more than at the beginning of July. AfD has 16 percent (minus 1), SPD with federal chancellor Olaf Scholz has 15 percent (plus 1). The Greens have lost a point and are currently at 12 percent, their lowest value in the Germany trend since April 2018. The alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht has 9 percent (plus 1), and the FDP is struggling to re-enter the Bundestag with 5 percent support. All other parties currently have 11 percent (minus one point) combined, including the Left.
Poll results are always subject to uncertainties, especially due to decreasing party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions. In general, polls only reflect the opinion climate at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
The survey was conducted from August 5 to 7, with 1311 eligible voters being interviewed.
The Commission, referring to the Union's decision-making body, will consider the chancellor candidacy in autumn, taking into account the current polls that indicate CSU leader Söder has a significant lead over CDU chairman Merz.
Despite Merz and Söder's agreement to make a joint decision on the chancellor candidacy in autumn, there have been disagreements among several CDU minister-presidents over who should be the Union's nominee, highlighting the importance of The Commission's role in this process.
