Sizable support appears to favor France's far-right political figures.
French President Macron declares new national elections following his alliance's rout in the European elections. His party might lose its right to speak in parliament as the far-right populists led by Le Pen gaze at an absolute majority, which could also add complications in dealings with Germany.
A poll predicts the French far-right populists could secure an absolute majority in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. They might potentially have anywhere from 250 to 300 seats in the National Assembly, which requires 289 seats for a majority. This was reports by the Institut Odoxa on behalf of the magazine "Le Nouvel Obs".
The survey suggests the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen would obtain 33% of the voter preferences in the first round on June 30, thus making it the leading contender, ahead of the left-green coalition known as "New People's Front" with 28%. President Emmanuel Macron's liberal contingent is projected to garner 19% of the votes.
Disappointing Cards for the Presidential Faction
When analyzed in terms of parliamentary seats, the RN would thus secure a majority. According to the survey, there would be between 160 and 210 seats for the left, 70 and 120 for the presidential faction, and 10 to 50 for the conservatives from the Republicans and the far-right.
Another survey by Ifop Fiducial for the broadcaster LCI, the newspaper "Le Figaro", and Sud Radio reveals the RN at 35%. For the left-wing coalition, 29% of the respondents are planning to vote, and for the presidential faction, 21.5%.
According to the daily poll, the RN would thus have between 200 and 240 seats, the left-wing coalition between 180 and 210 seats, the presidential faction between 110 and 180 seats, and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing parties between 40 and 60 seats. However, these results should be perceived "with caution," it was mentioned.
President Emmanuel Macron calls for new elections in France after his alliance suffers a clear setback in the European elections. The elections occur in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7.
What if RN Wins?
If the right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen prevails in the parliamentary elections, this would probably make dealings with Germany more challenging. RN leader Jordan Bardella and his predecessor Le Pen have long pursued an anti-German policy, according to Ross. Both have propagated the idea that Germany controls in Brussels and undermines French interests. "There's a risk that old tensions and stereotypes will resurface," warns Ross.
The potential conflict zones can also be deduced from the RN's election manifesto: The RN intends to depart from the EU electricity market and renegotiate the Migrationspact. A victory for the RN "would bring about a lot," is assured for Ross. Additionally, conflicts with EU law were evident, such as the RN's desired "national preference," which would apply to the allocation of contracts or employment.
In the election manifesto, there was previously a proposal to abandon the German-French arms projects such as the fighter jet and the battle tank. But Bardella has now backed off. France's international commitments, he assured on Wednesday, must be honored.
RN aligns with AFD to the right
As for relations with Germany - or other EU partners - the RN has displayed little interest so far. The focus is solely on domestic policy. Even in the European election campaign, EU themes played a secondary role.
The rupture with the former sister party AFD in Germany is complete. The RN has terminated collaboration with them in the EU Parliament, as the French right-wing populists consider the German EU deputies to be too far-right. And when AFD leader Alice Weidel recently drew a parallel between the occupied Crimean Peninsula and the French overseas department of Mayotte, Le Pen firmly rejected any meddling.
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In light of the polls, Emmanuel Macron's liberal faction might struggle significantly in the upcoming French parliamentary elections, as surveys suggest that Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National could secure up to 33% of the votes in the first round, potentially giving them an absolute majority in the National Assembly, surpassing Macron's projected 19%.
If the far-right populists led by Le Pen manage to gain an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections, as predicted by surveys, their policies, such as departing from the EU electricity market and renegotiating the Migrationspact, could pose challenges in dealing with France's neighbor and key ally, Germany, as noted by political analyst Ross.
