She could beat Trump, but she won't
A recent survey shows: Only Michelle Obama would defeat Donald Trump in a presidency election for sure. However, the former First Lady does not want to run. The Democrats are left with a straw man. And the fear of chaos.
The TV debate against Donald Trump heavily harmed Joe Biden. Since then, Trump's approval ratings have increased, while Biden's have decreased. On average, Trump currently leads by 2.3 percentage points in national polls. According to another calculation, it's 2.9 points. A New York Times survey even shows Trump with a 6-point lead over Biden.
In this disastrous situation for Biden, the idea of replacing the candidate arises. Theoretically, it's possible. The question is: Who should replace him? Among the potential candidates, none is a sure bet.
However, there's one who could beat Trump, even significantly: Michelle Obama. A recent survey shows that the former First Lady would have 50% of Americans behind her if she ran against Trump. Trump would only get 39% of the votes in this case.
Another argument speaks for Michelle Obama. 55% of US citizens have a positive opinion of her; over Trump, 42% have a positive opinion, and over Biden, 38%. However, there's a catch. She has, as far as we know, ruled out running. Not a chance. No way.
Democrats have been calling for Michelle Obama for years to save the country from Trump. At the same time, she has repeatedly stated that she is not available as a presidential candidate - that she generally does not want to get involved in politics. When asked if she had ever been seriously approached about a candidacy, Michelle Obama said in Jimmy Kimmel's talk show in 2018: "Constantly." But she had never had serious talks about it, "because it's not something I'm interested in or something I would ever do."
A year later, she explained that there was "zero chance" of her running. Elsewhere, Michelle Obama explained that politics had never been "something I chose for myself." In her book "Becoming," she writes: "I'm telling you this directly: I have no intention of ever running for office."
The media and public fantasy has not been able to stop Michelle Obama. This is also due to the fact that it has become so difficult for the Democrats to find a candidate or a candidate whom the entire party can rally behind. That's also the reason Biden ran again.
The political spectrum of the Democrats has become even broader due to the radicalization of the Republicans. It reaches from left-wing politicians like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to conservative politicians like Senator Joe Manchin, who recently left the Democratic Party. This breadth also applies to the voters of the Democrats. Whoever wants to be President must be able to address very different voter groups. This will become increasingly difficult, the more diverse society becomes. Public figures like Michelle Obama, who manage this despite that, are rare.
Biden's poor poll numbers are something the Democrats cannot dismiss. There are two reasons to hold on to him: In the U.S. electoral system, it is possible to win the presidential elections without receiving the most votes from the voters nationwide. This happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton received about 48% of the votes, and Trump only 46%. He became president nonetheless, as it is the Electoral College that ultimately elects the President.
For Biden, this means: The straw is thin, but it's still there. The statistics portal Fivethirtyeight has run 1000 scenarios on how the election could turn out. Currently, 525 scenarios have Trump as the new President. Biden wins in 472 cases. (In three simulations, neither of them has a majority among the voters.)
The second reason for Biden is the fear of consequences if he drops out. If Biden withdraws, the new Democratic presidential candidate would have to be nominated at the Democratic Convention in August. Normally, this is mostly a show, as the nomination is already decided by then - in the primaries. If Biden steps down, chaos could ensue at the convention. Many at the top of the Democrats fear that a chaotic nominating convention would split the party for years to come. The calculation behind this: We'd rather lose now than paralyze ourselves for years.
At least for now. That is, unless the Democrats find another candidate whom they trust to run.
- Despite Michelle Obama's refusal to run, Democrats continue to call on her to save the party from Donald Trump in the US presidential election 2024.
- If the US presidential election 2024 were to happen now, surveys indicate that Joe Biden would trail behind Donald Trump, while Michelle Obama would lead with 50% of American support against Trump's 39%.
- In the US presidential election 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the main contenders, with Clinton receiving slightly more votes nationwide but losing to Trump due to the Electoral College system.
- Members of the Democratic Party, particularly progressives, have advocated for left-wing figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president, while conservatives like Joe Manchin represent the opposite end of the spectrum.
- Barack Obama, Biden's predecessor, has expressed his support for Michelle Obama entering politics but has also reminded her that the political world can be "hard and nasty."
