Parliamentary elections in France - Seven questions and answers about the election in France
What does it mean and can political paralysis be avoided in the short term? Brief answer: Nobody knows for sure. Article 8 of the Constitution states that the President appoints the Prime Minister, but sets no criteria. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to offer the position to the strongest parliamentary faction, which, according to surveys, will be the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration RN.
Will Bardella be Prime Minister? The RN has named its party leader Jordan Bardella as a candidate for the position of Prime Minister, but also declared that he would reject the position if his and his allies did not obtain at least 289 seats and an absolute majority. Since the Constitution makes no provisions for the selection of the Prime Minister, Macron could theoretically offer the position to another party or an independent personality.
Who would it be then? The Constitution provides no concrete answer. One possibility would be to forge an alliance of established parties and determine a Prime Minister from their ranks. Such an alliance currently does not exist, but Macron has called on the parties to stand against the right-wing extremists. Another possibility would be to offer the position to the alliance of left-wing extremists, socialists, and Greens, which, according to the polls, would be the second largest group to emerge from the election. The Left could then try to form a minority government.
If Marine Le Pen's party is the largest in the parliament but not in power, the faction could block the government's proposals or demand changes. The Constitution grants the government some tools to bypass this, but with limitations.
What happens if no agreement is reached? It is possible that none of the three groups – the right-wing, the center, and the left – is large enough to govern alone, form a coalition, or secure guarantees for a functioning minority government. In such a case, France could be politically paralyzed, with little or no legislation and a caretaker government that manages the daily affairs.
Could Macron resign? Macron has ruled this out, but it could be an option if all else fails. However, neither the parliament nor the government can force him to do so.
Could there be new elections? At least not immediately. Article 12 of the French Constitution allows the President to dissolve the parliament and call new elections, but not within the first year after an election.
- Given the expected dominance of the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration Rassemblement National in the forthcoming parliamentary election, Marine Le Pen and her party's opinion poll lead could potentially position RN as the strongest parliamentary faction, potentially leading to Emmanuel Macron offering Jordan Bardella, the party leader of RN, the position of Prime Minister.
- In the event of the Rassemblement National not securing an absolute majority of 289 seats during the parliamentary election, Jordan Bardella, as the RN's candidate for the Prime Minister position, has publicly stated that he would reject the offer.
- Without an absolute majority, French President Emmanuel Macron may consider forging an alliance with established parties, potentially leading to the appointment of a Prime Minister from their ranks, or offering the position to the second largest group, the alliance of left-wing extremists, socialists, and Greens, which, according to opinion polls, could emerge as the second largest group post-election.
