Senate Democratic party initiates substantial TV advertising spending in Texas and Florida, as the electoral landscape becomes increasingly challenging.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is bolstering its financial support for Democratic contenders challenging Republican Senators Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida. This additional funding will likely include more TV investments, according to the committee.
Chairman of the DSCC, Gary Peters, stated, "Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on the offensive. We've been preparing all cycle to exploit the damaged standings of Sens. Cruz and Scott in their states, and our efforts in Texas and Florida are gaining momentum."
Peters further added, "Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns in both states, and as we intensify our attacks against Sens. Cruz and Scott, we will solidify the case against them."
The Democrats confront a challenging Senate landscape this year. Eight of the top 10 seats on CNN's list of the seats most likely to switch are held by Democrats or independents aligned with them. Republicans must either win the White House or secure one additional seat to acquire the Senate majority, presuming they seize West Virginia, where Senator Joe Manchin is not seeking reelection.
Democrats are defending seats in Montana and Ohio – states Trump won comfortably two times – as well as five seats in swing states Trump barely won in 2020 and deep-blue Maryland, where Republicans have invested heavily to boost former Governor Larry Hogan.
Even though many Democratic incumbents have outperformed the ticket topper, under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the party cannot afford to lose seats without making gains of its own – particularly when a senator like Jon Tester in Montana would need to exceed Harris' margin by double digits to prevail. Both Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter have recently shifted the Montana race, which was previously a toss-up, towards the Republicans.
Florida and Texas – often considered longshots – are now in focus for the DSCC. The committee has already allocated a $25 million investment in voter contact programs to these states. Additionally, it has financed on-the-ground staff and digital ads in both states, which have criticized the GOP incumbents for their opposition to the bipartisan border security bill this year.
However, the new TV spending indicates a more aggressive strategy against Cruz and Scott, which will likely elicit positive feedback from Democrats advocating for a broader offensive. However, this move could also provoke criticism within the party for diverting funds into pricey states while numerous Democratic incumbents need protection.
In the case of Texas, which is ninth on CNN's list of flippinable Senate seats, Democrats believe it to be a more viable target. Running against Cruz is Republican Colin Allred, a former NFL player who seized a Dallas-area House seat in 2018.
Cruz, a popular figure of ridicule on the left, won a second term in 2018 by narrowly defeating Democrat Beto O’Rourke. Allred's campaign has outraised Cruz's primary campaign committee for much of the current cycle, although Cruz enters the current funding quarter with a higher war chest.
The Democrats have invested over $49 million in the Senate race in Texas this cycle, mostly from the Allred campaign, while Republicans have spent nearly $18 million. As of Wednesday, Republicans have booked future reservations worth nearly $19 million in Texas, with much of that coming from Cruz's campaign, compared to about $2 million from Democrats.
A recent advertisement from Allred compares his background as a Baylor University football captain with Cruz's policies, arguing that "Ted Cruz only cares about Ted Cruz". Allred's campaign has also attacked Cruz on abortion issues, disguising him to be behind the state's restrictions.
The most recent poll in Texas to meet CNN's reporting standards – from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas – shows Cruz leading Allred 44% to 36% among registered voters, representing a wider margin for the Republican than in other summer polls.
The Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, although presidential nominees have been gradually reducing their losses in recent cycles – Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012, Clinton by 9 points four years later, and Biden lost it by less than 6 points in 2020.
Florida, a longtime swing state that has grown more Republican-leaning in recent years, has proven to be a more formidable target for Democrats. Scott, a two-term Florida governor, defeated Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in 2018 and now faces former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Scott, a former healthcare executive, has lavished substantial personal funds into the race, but he's never won an election by more than a point, and Democrats argue that his recent opposition to Senate legislation protecting IVF and his proposal to sunset federal programs (later revised to exclude Medicare and Social Security) make him vulnerable. Mucarsel-Powell has emphasized her family's Ecuadorian heritage and contended in her advertising that Scott will "take away your freedoms".
Democrats are also optimistic that a proposed abortion referendum on the Florida ballot this year could boost enthusiasm for the party.
Democratic organizations have spent around $7 million in Florida during this election cycle, while Republicans have shelled out nearly $16 million, as per AdImpact's stats. The Mucarsel-Powell campaign has disbursed approximately $6.6 million of this amount, with Scott's campaign splurging $12.6 million. As of Wednesday, minor reservations remained minimal, with Democrats securing about $1.6 million and Republicans reserving $627,000.
No recent surveys of Florida's Senate race meet CNN's criteria for coverage.
Trump's lead in Florida has been slimmer than in Texas, albeit expanding – from roughly 1 point in 2016 to 3 points in 2020. Regrettably, Democrats suffered a defeat in the bid for Florida's alternative Senate seat in 2022, losing by an overwhelming 16 points and 1/2. Democratic candidate Val Demings succumbed to GOP Senator Marco Rubio.
CNN’s David Wright aided in compiling this report.
The strategic investment in TV advertising by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Texas and Florida, aimed at challenging Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, highlights the importance of politics in these critical races. The commitment to a more aggressive strategy against Cruz and Scott is expected to resonate with Democrats who advocate for a broader offensive in these states.
