Selensky's most important journey

Ukraine war - Selensky's most important journey

It was a hero's welcome in the US Congress with minutes of applause. It has been almost a year since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was celebrated in Washington. At the time, it was his first trip abroad since the start of the Russian war of aggression. Washington was an obvious destination: the USA is his country's most important supporter. But a lot has happened since Selensky's last visit. He has since traveled to many other capitals and is now in Washington for the third time in a year.

But this trip is different from the previous ones. Selenskyj is not coming as a hero, but as someone who has to ask for money from the USA. Nothing less than the future of his war-torn country depends on whether he is successful.

Congress blocks further aid for Ukraine

A year ago, Congress approved more billions to support Ukraine than US President Joe Biden had requested. Since the end of February 2022, well over 40 billion US dollars have flowed in military aid alone for the defensive campaign. Now there is no more money at all for the time being. This is because Biden's Democrats have now lost the majority in one of the two chambers of parliament, the House of Representatives, to the Republicans.

In recent months, Biden has once again requested billions of euros to support Ukraine. However, the Republicans are driving him forward with demands for more funds to protect the US southern border. Without an agreement between the two parties, there will be no money. The White House has calculated that the funds approved so far will run out by the end of the year. It is above all the Republicans who are increasingly questioning the Ukraine aid - or even rejecting it completely. According to a recent survey, just under half of Republican voters currently believe that the USA is sending too much support to Ukraine. After the start of the war, however, half of the Republicans surveyed answered the opposite: the USA is not doing enough.

Republicans as the party of isolationism

One point here is certainly the fatigue factor and the question raised in the middle of the election campaign as to how long the billions in aid should continue. Either aid for Ukraine or better border protection: for a number of Republicans, there only seems to be an either-or. The Republican Party has changed - and not just since Selensky's visit a year ago. It is a conservative isolationism that is asserting itself. It has already caught on under former President Donald Trump and is the antithesis of the interventionist foreign policy of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush. The Trump Party, which the Republicans have become, advocates a withdrawal from the world - in the style of Trump's "America first" slogan.

Everything is at stake for Selenskyj

The mood has also changed in Ukraine. Unlike a year ago, pessimism is spreading in Kiev. The summer offensive brought no success. Instead, Zelensky ordered a stronger expansion of the defense lines. According to the Ukrainian military leadership, Russian troops launched attacks on large parts of the front in the east of the country. The war goal proclaimed by Zelenskyi of recapturing all territories within the 1991 borders has receded into the distant future.

The US Congress is not only responsible for military support. The package of the equivalent of almost 57 billion euros that Biden has requested also includes direct budgetary aid for Kiev of almost eleven billion euros. More than three billion euros of this was supposed to flow this year and could only be partially replaced elsewhere. There is a gaping hole in the Ukrainian budget of a good 38 billion euros for 2024, which is to be closed primarily with money from abroad.

The alarm is therefore already being sounded for January in the event of a further lack of money from the USA. "Without US aid in January, there will already be some difficulties with payments in the social sector," said the head of the budget committee in parliament, Roxolana Pidlassa, to the Ukrainian "Forbes Magazine". Specifically, this would primarily be pension payments for over ten million people and aid for almost five million internally displaced persons. Economists warn that Kiev could then be forced to fire up the printing press as early as the first quarter. The result: inflation and a further increase in dissatisfaction with Zelensky.

Failure would also be fatal for Biden

But there is also a lot at stake for the US President. This is clear from the drastic appeals with which Biden and his team have been calling on Congress to act for weeks. Ukraine will be "brought to its knees on the battlefield" if the flow of weapons and equipment from the USA is interrupted, the Director of the National Budget Office wrote to the leadership in both chambers of Congress. Even if international partners were to increase their aid, they would not be able to compensate for the US aid.

Biden has promised to support Ukraine for as long as necessary. Allies and partners are guided by the USA: whether the USA continues or not is of great importance for decisions in Berlin, Brussels or London. Biden himself warned that Putin's "appetite for power and control" is not limited to Ukraine. "If we allow Putin to extinguish Ukraine's independence, aggressors around the world will be emboldened to try to do the same."

But Biden cannot afford to fail in terms of domestic policy either when it comes to releasing new aid. In the election campaign, it would be a sign of absolute weakness if he could not prevail on this issue, which is so important to him. So it's not just about the reliability of the USA, but also about Biden's credibility, his political success and his legacy. So it is no wonder that Biden has now invited Selensky to Washington again shortly before the end of the year. Probably no one else could convince Biden's doubters better than the Ukrainian president himself.