Scholz suffers losses, SPD experiences gains.
One week before the European election, the political mood in Germany remains largely unchanged. In the race for chancellor, Olaf Scholz suffers a two-point loss but still widens the gap over Friedrich Merz.
In the Barometer of Trends, the SPD stands at a respectable 16% in May. With only a week left until the European election, SPD has gained one point in a Forsa survey. Simultaneously, other parties have lost one point - including the Left and Free Voters, both under 3%. The figures for all other parties remain unchanged compared to the previous week.
If the Bundestag were to be elected at this point, these would be the anticipated results: CDU/CSU with 30% (federal election in September 2021: 24.1%), SPD with 17% (25.7%), AfD with 15% (10.3%), Greens with 13% (14.8%), FDP with 6% (11.5%), and BSW with 6% (0%). The combined share of the other parties is 13%.
The percentage of undecided or non-voters is at 22%, down only slightly from the 23.4% of the previous federal election.
If the federal chancellor were directly elected, Scholz would still be ahead of Merz. While the SPD lags significantly behind the Union in the traditional polling, 31% of Germans would choose Scholz for the chancellorship and 28% would choose CDU chair Merz. Each candidate has lost two points, allowing Scholz to expand his lead even as his approval drops.
Scholz's popularity among SPD supporters is greater than Merz's among CDU and CSU, with 75% of SPD supporters approving of Scholz compared to 64% of Union supporters endorsing Merz.
Forty-one percent of Germans would never consider voting for either Scholz or Merz for chancellor.
Unwaveringly, 18% of Germans trust the CDU/CSU to tackle the problems in Germany the most. Ten percent, an increase of one point from the prior week, express this trust in the SPD. Additionally, 7% trust the Greens, with 5% supporting the AfD, 2% the FDP, and 4% other parties. Almost half (54%) of Germans distrust any political group for competency.
The data provided by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL/ntv Trend Barometer in cooperation with RTL Germany was compiled between May 28 and June 3. The sample consisted of 2,506 participants. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
For additional information about Forsa, view their website. https://www.forsa.de/ [Forsa conducts surveys for RTL Germany.]
Read also:
- Alliance 90/The Greens gains slightly in the RTL/ntv trend barometer survey, maintaining their position with 13% support in the upcoming Federal election 2025.
- In the same survey, the FDP experiences a minor dip, now holding 6% of the vote, while CSU, a part of the Union, remains stable at 30%.
- Olaf Scholz, the SPD candidate, is leading Friedrich Merz in the direct chancellor election poll, with 31% of Germans supporting Scholz, compared to Merz's 28%, despite both losing two points.
- The FDP, with Friedrich Merz as its chair, is finding it challenging in the surveys, as only 4% of Germans express trust in the party to handle the country's issues effectively.
- The AfD, a right-wing political party, holds a relatively constant 15% support in the Federal election 2025 predictions, according to Forsa surveys.
- CDU chair Friedrich Merz's approval rating among Union supporters is 64%, indicating a significantly lower support level compared to Olaf Scholz's 75% among SPD members.
