Scholz is in last place in the Ampel ranking

Almost all cabinet members received lower marks from the population at the end of the year than last December. The Chancellor, of all people, is in last place in the ranking. A large majority consider the ongoing budget crisis to be an embarrassment.

At the halfway point of the traffic light system, Germans have given the federal government a poor report card. In a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL/ntv trend barometer, almost all cabinet members received worse ratings than a year ago.

The survey asked whether the respective cabinet members are suitable for their office. Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser falls particularly sharply. While 37% said in December 2022 that the SPD politician was suitable for her office, this figure has now fallen to just 20% - a drop of 17 percentage points. The difference for Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is 13 points, but she fell from 55% to 42%. Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck is currently considered suitable by 39% of Germans. A year ago, the figure was 49%.

There is hardly any difference for Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner: a year ago, 42% said he was suitable for his office. Currently, 40 percent say the same. However, the number of those who consider the FDP leader to be unsuitable as Federal Finance Minister has increased significantly: from 44% to 54%. Forsa calculates the difference between the two values as an "index". For Lindner, this index is minus 14.

Only one in five Germans think Scholz is suitable

Only six cabinet members have a positive index, i.e. more Germans consider them suitable than unsuitable. Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius from the SPD, for example, is considered suitable by 75 percent - the highest value in this ranking. Only 16% consider him unsuitable. There is no comparative value for Pistorius from the previous year, as he only took office in January 2023.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of all people, has the worst index score of all cabinet members: minus 54. Only 19% of Germans say he is suitable for his office. 73 percent consider him unsuitable. Only two ministers have not worsened their index: Scholz's Head of the Chancellery Wolfgang Schmidt (from 11 to 12) and Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann (unchanged at 5).

Only people who know the respective politicians by name were surveyed for this ranking. The degree of familiarity of the individual cabinet members varies greatly:

99 percent of Germans know Baerbock, Habeck and Lindner, for example.
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach is also known by 99%.
In contrast, Chancellery Minister Schmidt is only known by name to 50% of Germans.
Federal Minister for Family Affairs Lisa Paus (from 49% to 72%) and Federal Minister for Building Klara Geywitz (from 46% to 65%) have seen the strongest increase in name recognition.

Majority has no understanding for the continuation of the budget crisis

One of the reasons for the cabinet members' poorer ratings is likely to be the still unresolved budget crisis - so far the talks between Scholz, Habeck and Lindner have not produced any results. The coalition has abandoned its plan to have the 2024 budget passed by the Bundestag this year.

Only a minority of Germans understand that the governing parties have not yet found a solution. When asked whether they understand the failure of the coalition to reach an agreement on the 2024 federal budget, 22% say yes, while 75% opt for the answer "no, this is more of an embarrassment for the government". Further results:

Understanding is similarly distributed in the East (25 to 74 percent) and West (22 to 76 percent).
Supporters of the SPD (40 percent) and Greens (45 percent) are more likely to express understanding than supporters of the FDP (28 percent), CDU/CSU (16 percent) and AfD (6 percent).
However, the majority of SPD and Green supporters also consider the continuation of the budget crisis to be an embarrassment (SPD: 57%, Greens 52%).

The CDU/CSU makes slight gains in the Sunday poll

The poor ratings for the cabinet members are also reflected in the ratings of their parties in the weekly trend barometer. Here, the three "traffic light" parties together now only score 32%, as the Greens have lost another point compared to the previous week. The CDU/CSU gained one point. All other parties are unchanged.

If the Bundestag were elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 31 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 22 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 14 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 13 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 11% of voters would opt for other parties.

At 27%, the proportion of non-voters and undecided voters is again significantly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last Bundestag election (23.4%).

Scholz loses points in the chancellor question

In the question of chancellor, incumbent Olaf Scholz loses one point in both constellations surveyed. If the Federal Chancellor were elected directly, Scholz could expect 15 percent of the vote if he were to run against CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. Merz would receive an unchanged 24% of the vote, while Habeck would also receive an unchanged 18%.

If Baerbock rather than Habeck were to run for the Greens, Scholz could expect 18% of the vote. Merz would receive 28%, one point more than in the previous week. An unchanged 17% of voters would opt for Baerbock.

In the assessment of the political competence of the individual parties, 16% currently believe that the CDU/CSU is best placed to deal with the problems in Germany, an increase of one percentage point. The SPD and the Greens only have this confidence at 6% each, one point less for both parties than in the previous week. An unchanged 2% say that the FDP is best able to deal with the problems in Germany. Eight percent say this about the AfD. 60 percent of Germans do not trust any party to solve the problems in Germany.

The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between December 5 and 11. Data basis: 2501 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data on the current budget crisis was collected on December 8 and 11. Data basis: 1003 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points. The data on the federal cabinet was collected between December 6 and 11. Data basis: 1006 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.

Further information on Forsa here.Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.