Axis with Warsaw - Scholz in Poland - does his host have a recipe against the extreme right?
A flight between Warsaw and Berlin lasts around an hour. The fact that Olaf Scholz and most of his cabinet are already traveling to the German-Polish government consultations on Monday evening, although they are scheduled for Tuesday, is a sign to Poland: Dear Poland, you are so important to us that we come even a day early.
These are the first consultations of this kind since November 2018. They are meant to be a signal of renewal for the relations between the two countries, which have long suffered under the right-nationalist PiS government in Poland. And for Scholz, they could mean even more.
Given the difficult situation in Europe for him, he is in search of friends. If the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, takes power in France after the second round of the advanced parliamentary elections this coming Sunday, Germany's closest ally in Europe could potentially fall away as a partner for an extended period. Poland could at least partially fill this void.
Not only economic ties speak in favor of this: Poland is Germany's fifth most important trading partner – and after France and the Netherlands, the third most important in Europe. Goods worth almost 170 billion Euro were traded between the two countries last year.
The old government spoke of a "Fourth Reich"
Poland has played a key role in EU security policy since the Russian aggression against Ukraine. This is true whether it comes to the acceptance of Ukrainian refugees (Poland has taken in the second most after Germany), whether it comes to arms deliveries to Ukraine, or whether it comes to strengthening the eastern flank (Poland shares a border with Belarus and, through the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, also with Russia).
A "new chapter" in bilateral relations had already been announced by the Federal Chancellor during her inaugural visit to Warsaw in December 2021. However, at that time, she had to deal with the nationalist and EU-hostile party "Law and Justice" (PiS) on the other side. PiS Vice-Chancellor Jarosław Kaczynski accused Germany of trying to turn the European Union into a "Fourth Reich" shortly after Scholz's visit.
Finally, a Europe-friendly leader in power in Warsaw
Things have been different since last October: Tusk, the former premier, managed to emerge as the second strongest force from the parliamentary elections with his liberal party "Civic Platform" (PO), and with two smaller coalition partners (the conservative "Third Way" and the left-wing "Left" union), he formed a government. For Berlin, this means that in Warsaw, after eight difficult years, there is once again a Europe-friendly prime minister in office, whom one already knows from earlier times. Tusk was President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.
"The year 2024 could be a turning point for German-Polish relations," says David Gregosz, head of the Warsaw office of the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Germany needs Poland not only as a partner in security policy to strengthen the eastern flank, but also for Europe.
In 2025, Poland will hold the EU presidency, meaning they will set the agenda for inner-European reforms, such as discussing the often obstructive principle of unanimity in many processes. "Realistically, the German government is left with nothing else but working with pro-European forces on the future of the Union," says Gregosz.
The Sensitive Issue of Reparations
Historically, there is a touchy point of reference, albeit a sensitive one: On September 1st, the attack on Poland by Nazi Germany is commemorated for the 85th time. The Polish demands for reparations and the sometimes irritated defensive reactions from the German side have been a persistent conflict in relations. "The need for Poland for reparations should be taken seriously and not dismissed as mere party politics," warns Gregosz: "Behind all the financial demands of enormous magnitude, there is primarily the desire for Polish suffering to be acknowledged."
The German government is already taking symbolic steps in this direction. In Berlin, a "German-Polish House" is soon to be built as a commemoration site for the victims of German occupation in Poland, but also as a reminder of a shared history. It falls under the jurisdiction of Federal Minister of Culture Claudia Roth, who is also present in the government consultations.
Relations between Germany and Poland will not run smoothly under the new Premier Tusk either. He faces immense pressure to assert himself as a leader of a self-confident nation within the EU and not as "Germany's lackey," a criticism leveled against him by the PiS during the campaign. Additionally, Poland's reluctance towards its neighbor's long-standing stance on Russian aggression is a factor.
Political scientist Gregosz believes a series of trust-building measures from the German side would be worthwhile, starting with more joint military exercises between the German Bundeswehr and Polish armed forces and extending to a new German-Polish treaty. The last such treaty, known as the Neighborhood Treaty, was signed in 1991.
What Olaf Scholz Can Learn from Donald Tusk
In a current issue, Scholz could learn a few tips from his Polish colleague: How to defeat right-wing populists. Tusk managed this, among other things, through a "determined Social Media campaign" and the organization of large, populist events that even brought non-voters back to the polls, says the expert Gregosz.
Tusk achieved this under challenging conditions. During their tenure, the PiS party had been systematically dismantling the rule of law, for example, the independence of the judiciary and the media.
If Scholz wants to prevent the decline of his party following the poor European election results, he and the SPD must prove at the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in the fall that the German government has found new recipes in the fight against right-wing populists.
- Despite the flight scheduled for Tuesday, Olaf Scholz and his cabinet are already traveling to the government consultations in Berlin on Monday evening, demonstrating Poland's importance to Germany.
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine has made Poland an essential partner in EU security policy, contributing to refugee acceptance, arms deliveries, and strengthening the eastern flank.
- If Marine Le Pen's National Rally wins in France's upcoming elections, Poland could potentially fill the void as a partner for an extended period, given their economic ties as Germany's fifth most important trading partner.
- During his inaugural visit to Warsaw, Scholz announced a new chapter in bilateral relations, but in 2021, he had to deal with the EU-hostile PiS government, led by Jarosław Kaczynski.
- Tusk, a Europe-friendly leader, emerged as the second strongest force in Poland's parliamentary elections and formed a government with two smaller coalition partners, providing Germany with a pro-European force to work with.
- With Poland holding the EU presidency in 2025, Germany needs to work with pro-European forces to shape inner-European reforms, such as discussing the principle of unanimity in many processes.
- The historical issue of reparations remains a sensitive point between Germany and Poland, with the German government acknowledging the need to address the Polish people's suffering and taking symbolic steps towards reconciliation.
- In their efforts to combat right-wing populism, Scholz could learn from Tusk's strategies, including a determined social media campaign and large populist events.
- Tusk achieved remarkable results in the face of challenging conditions, including systematically dismantling the rule of law by the PiS government, setting a precedent for Olaf Scholz and the SPD in their fight against right-wing populism.
