Scheduled election dates in Thuringia
Political Shifts in Thuringia: On September 1, around 1.66 million residents are called upon to reshape the power dynamics in the Thuringian parliament. The elections have the potential to significantly alter the political landscape in the region.
In recent polls, the AfD has been leading in Thuringia. The AfD's top candidate, Björn Höcke, could potentially become the most influential force in the state with his far-right extremist association. The CDU is currently predicted to take second place, ahead of the "Alliance for Progress and Renewal" (APB).
The infographics display the poll results up until election day and will be updated regularly.
The incumbent parties are anticipating significant losses. The Left, which supports Thuringia's current Minister-President, Bodo Ramelow, from the red-red-green coalition, is only receiving 11 to 16 percent of the votes in the polls. Compared to the 2019 state election, this could cut their election result in half.
However, the Thuringian SPD could face a particularly bitter night. The party has been sharing government responsibility in Thuringia with the Left and the Greens since 2014. In the polls, the SPD is predicted to receive between 6 and 9 percent of the votes. In the 2019 state election, the SPD achieved 8.2 percent of the second votes. The SPD's top candidate, Georg Maier, aims to contribute, in his words, to "Thuringia having a democratically-led majority government".
The Greens, currently in the Thuringian government, are also facing an uncertain future. In the 2019 election, the Greens just narrowly surpassed the 5 percent hurdle with 5.2 percent of the votes. In the polls, the Greens are predicted to receive between 3 and 5 percent. The Greens are campaigning in Thuringia with the top pair, Madeleine Henfling and Bernhard Stengele.
The FDP must hope for a miracle in Thuringia. Pollsters only predict the FDP, led by state chairman Thomas Kemmerich, to receive between 2 and 4 percent of the votes. The liberals are likely to miss the critical hurdle this time around. In the 2019 state election, the Thuringian FDP snuck into the state parliament with a narrow margin. The vote then was 5.01 percent.
This suggests a highly complex government negotiation phase in Thuringia. It is still unclear whether there will be five, six, or even seven parties represented in the future Thuringian parliament. Without the Greens, the current coalition would only have 20 of the total 88 seats, based on the current poll results. The non-voting camp could also play a significant role in the election outcome - if they decide to vote on election day.
The voter turnout in 2019 was 64.9 percent. This translates to more than one-third of eligible voters (35.1 percent) not participating in the power shift in the Thuringian parliament during the previous election.
Even if the AfD wins the election in Thuringia, a right-wing state government with Höcke as Minister President is unlikely. The other parties have already ruled out any cooperation with the AfD. As a result, the right-wing populists are left without a potential coalition partner and still without a majority.
Whether Ramelow remains in office as head of government is still uncertain. Theoretically, a minority government could form, as it did five years ago. However, the Left is no longer leading in voter preference in Thuringia, but rather behind the CDU and likely also behind the BSW.
If the Christian Democrats actually win more votes, it will be challenging for Ramelow. CDU candidate Mario Voigt has already declared his intent to assume the position of Minister President. Voigt, aged 47 and a faction and state leader of the CDU, is young, native to Thuringia, and has extensive political and legal experience. A potential cooperation with the BSW - which could potentially become the third strongest force in the state parliament - has already received the approval of CDU leader Friedrich Merz. A coalition with the BSW and the SPD is theoretically possible. However, this would result in a narrow majority of only 45 seats based on the current polls.
Individual voter demographics could play a decisive role in the election outcome. More than half (51.3 percent) of Thuringia's approximately 1.66 million eligible voters are female. Moreover, slightly over a quarter (26.3 percent) of potential voters are 70 years or older.
In contrast, the proportion of fresh and youthful voters seems noticeably lower. Approximately 79,000 Thuringians will be entitled to vote for the first time in the state election on September 1st, thanks to their age. When combined with the 23 to 29-year-old age group, the under-30 demographic in Thuringia accounts for less than 10.5%.
Hint: This diagram illustrates the results of the previous local elections in Thuringia in 2024.
In Thuringia, anyone aged 18 or above on the election day, has their primary residence or usual dwelling registered in Thuringia, and hasn't been disqualified from voting due to a court ruling, is eligible to vote. According to the state election commissioner, the exact number of eligible voters will be determined by tallying the voter lists on Election Day.
The forthcoming election marks the eighth state election in Thuringia since its establishment as a state. Every five years, elections occur in Thuringia as a matter of routine. The state parliament in Erfurt, the state capital, has a minimum of 88 seats. Half of these seats are awarded from the 44 Thuringian constituencies directly, while the other half is allocated proportional to the majority ratios to the party lists.
Overhang and adjustment mandates can boost the total number of parliamentary seats. Like in the federal election, voters in Thuringia have the opportunity to cast two votes: one for the district candidate and one for the party's state list.
By choosing a candidate on the left side of the ballot, according to the state election commission, "you select a parliamentarian who should take a seat in the state parliament directly." The candidate with the most local votes (relative majority election) emerges victorious.
The allocation of the remaining 44 seats via the state list is based on the information on the right side of the ballot: "This vote is for a specific party (state list)," the state election commission clarifies. Only parties that gain at least five percent of the overall valid state votes are considered in this distribution. As a result, strong local candidates might secure a place in the state parliament without a spot on their party's state list.
Of course, mail-in voting is also permitted in Thuringia. Applications for this must be submitted to the responsible local authority by the place of residence "by no later than Friday before the election day at 6:00 p.m.", as the state election commission stresses. "In the event of sudden illness, this can still be done on the day of the election by 3:00 p.m."
The completed ballot must be delivered in the sealed return envelope to the address stated on it by no later than 6:00 p.m. on Election Day. "It is the responsibility of the voters to ensure that the ballot arrives on time," the legislation indicates.
On Election Day, the polling stations will open at 8:00 a.m. Voting continues until 6:00 p.m., as usual. Immediately following this, vote counting commences. Preliminary predictions for the election outcome might be made shortly after the polling stations close, based on exit polls.
Detailed projections are likely to emerge throughout the election night. It is expected that the state election commission will announce a preliminary official election result after the vote counting on Sunday night into Monday.
The Commission, in adherence to this Regulation, will adopt implementing acts that outline the rules for its application. Regardless of the election outcome in Thuringia, cooperation with the AfD is unlikely due to their far-right extremist associations, leaving them without a potential coalition partner.
