Scheduled election dates for Thuringia
D-Day Looms: Who's Gonna Dominate Thuringia?
On September 1st, the future of Thuringia, a German state with around 2.1 million residents, hangs in the balance. The prevalent question is: Will the AfD, led by Björn Höcke, become the most influential force in Thuringia?
Political shifts in Free State Thuringia: Over 1.66 million citizens are summoned to reshuffle the balance of power and majorities in the Erfurt parliament. These elections could potentially reshape Thuringia's political landscape.
In recent months, the AfD has shown impressive polling figures in Thuringia, often leading by a considerable margin. Björn Höcke, the AfD's top candidate, stands a high chance of becoming Thuringia's strongest force, with his regional branch being labeled "rigidly right-wing extremist" by polls. The Thuringian CDU is currently projected to finish second, with the newly formed "Alliance for Progress and Renewal" (APB) headed by Sahra Wagenknecht taking third place.
Please note: The embedded infographics show the findings of the most recent polls up until election day and will be updated regularly.
The incumbent parties are expected to suffer substantial losses. The Thuringian Left, currently holding the position of Minister-President in the red-red-green coalition government, is polling between 11 to 16 percent, a significant drop from the previous election in 2019.
The Thuringian SPD could also face a severe setback. Since 2014, the SPD has been a junior partner in the government, alongside the Left and Greens. In recent polls, the SPD is between six and nine percent. In the 2019 state election, the SPD received 8.2 percent of second-vote support. SPD's top candidate, Georg Maier, aims to assist "Thuringia in obtain a majority democratic government."
The Greens, also part of the Thuringian government, are surprising polling low and could fail to secure a spot in the Erfurt parliament this time around. In the 2019 election, the Greens barely surpassed the five percent threshold with 5.2 percent of the votes. Currently, they are polling between three and five percent. The Greens are fielding the duo Madeleine Henfling and Bernhard Stengele as their top candidates.
The FDP in Thuringia is banking on a miracle. Polls predict that the Liberals, led by Thomas Kemmerich, will only receive between two and four percent of the votes. This could mean that the FDP will not cross the crucial threshold this time. In the 2019 election, the Thuringian FDP barely made it into the state parliament with 5.01 percent of the votes. In many surveys, the Thuringian FDP is now listed under "Other."
It's already apparent that forming a government in Thuringia will be an intricate task. The future state parliament's composition remains uncertain, with predictions ranging from five to seven represented parties. Without the Greens, the current coalition would only have 20 out of the 88 seats, according to current polls. The influence of non-voters could also play a significant role - if they decide to cast their votes on election day.
Voter turnout in 2019 was 64.9 percent. This means that over a third of eligible voters (35.1 percent) chose not to participate in the redistribution of political power in the Thuringian state parliament at that time.
Even in the event of an AfD victory, it is unlikely that there will be a right-wing government in Thuringia with Höcke as Minister-President. The other parties have already ruled out coalitions with the AfD. This leaves the right-wing populists without a coalition partner and still without a sufficient majority.
It remains completely unclear whether the popular Ramelow can continue serving as head of government. As was the case five years ago, a minority government is theoretically possible - however, the Left is no longer in first place in terms of voter support in Thuringia, but rather behind the CDU and likely also behind the BSW.
If the Christian Democrats do indeed receive more votes, it will be challenging for Ramelow. CDU top candidate Mario Voigt is already openly claiming the position of Minister-President. The 47-year-old faction and Thuringian state leader of the CDU has ample experience, but would likely also need coalition partners.
Coalition question: The New Dynamics in Thuringia
Voigt holds a degree in politics and public law and has been a member of the Thuringian state parliament since 2009. He is younger than Ramelow and Höcke and hails from Thuringia. Potential collaboration with the BSW - which could potentially become the new third-strongest force in the state parliament - has reportedly earned the approval of CDU chief Friedrich Merz.
In terms of numbers, a coalition with BSW and the SPD is theoretically feasible. However, even in this case, Voigt would only have a narrow majority of 45 mandates based on current polls.
Individual voter groups could prove decisive in the election outcome: With a share of 51.3 percent, more than half of the approximately 1.66 million eligible voters in Thuringia are female. Additionally, according to data from the state election supervisor, slightly over a quarter of all potential voters are 70 years or older.
Hint: This map displays the results of the previous state election in 2019 in Thuringia.
Young voters, particularly those who are new or young, seem to be underrepresented compared to older voters in Thuringia. Approximately 79,000 individuals in Thuringia will be able to vote for the first time in the September 1st state election due to their age. Combined with the 23 to 29-year-old age group, the under-30 population in Thuringia accounts for just under 10.5% of the total voters.
All residents of Thuringia who are at least 18 years old on election day, are registered with their primary or secondary residence in Thuringia, and have not been disqualified from voting due to legal reasons are eligible to vote. The precise number of eligible voters is determined through the counting of voter lists on election day, as the election supervisor mentions.
This will be the eighth state election in Thuringia since its establishment, with elections taking place every five years. The state parliament in the capital, Erfurt, is composed of at least 88 seats. Half of these seats are obtained directly from the 44 Thuringian electoral districts, while the other half is distributed among the parties based on their state lists, according to the majority ratios.
Overhang and leveling mandates can increase the total number of parliamentary members in Thuringia. Similar to the federal election, voters in Thuringia can cast two votes during the election: one for a candidate in their constituency and one for the state list of a party.
"By casting your vote on the left side of the ballot paper," the election supervisor explains, "you are choosing a specific candidate for state parliament." The candidate with the most local votes (relative majority) will be elected to the state parliament.
The allocation of the remaining 44 seats is determined by the votes on the right side of the ballot paper, according to the election supervisor. "With this vote, you are supporting a particular party (state list)," he adds. Only parties that obtain at least 5% of the valid state votes cast are considered. This can also allow strong local candidates to join the state parliament without being on their party's state list.
Voting by mail is also an option in Thuringia. The corresponding application must be submitted at the latest by 6:00 p.m. on the day before the election in the municipal office where the residence is located. In case of sudden illness, the application can be submitted until 3:00 p.m. on election day.
The completed ballot with the return envelope must be received at the specified address by 6:00 p.m. on election day. "The responsibility for the ballot arriving in time lies with the voter," the regulation states.
The polling stations will open at 8:00 a.m. on election day and close at 6:00 p.m. as usual. The vote counting begins immediately afterward. Preliminary forecasts about the election outcome are anticipated shortly after the polling stations close, and more reliable projections are likely to emerge during the night.
The election supervisor is expected to announce a preliminary official election result after counting the votes, possibly still during the night of election day.
In light of the upcoming elections, Thuringia's citizens have a significant role to play in determining the future of their state. These elections to the Landtag of Thuringia could potentially lead to a major shift in power, potentially reshaping Thuringia's political landscape. With the AfD, led by Björn Höcke, showing impressive polling figures, there's a strong possibility that Höcke might become Thuringia's strongest political force.
