- Sapsan and Hrim-2 are reportedly involved in the development of Kiev's latest ballistic missile project.
President Zelensky of Ukraine announced on August 28 that the nation had effectively tested its first locally manufactured ballistic missile. He didn't provide additional insights. Though Zelensky wasn't explicit, Ukraine had ballistic missiles previously at its disposal. "New" might be referring to the range or payload.
Flight Range of Up to 1000 Kilometers
Kyiv is engaging in its strategic aerial counteroffensive against Russia. Objectives include fuel storage facilities, refineries, and airports. Political targets, like Moscow, are also prioritized. These operations have thus far been conducted using drones powered by light aircraft, which have a significant range but are susceptible to downing by ground-based machine gun teams. Their successes are due to Russia's vast territory and numerous potential targets. Kyiv's aerial counteroffensive would have distinct abilities with domestically produced ballistic missiles boasting a range of up to 700 or even 1000 kilometers and a payload of approximately 500 kilograms.**
Ukrainian drones are able to reach their targets undetected. However, they can also be intercepted by ground patrols armed with machine guns. To counter ballistic missiles, an intricate air defense network is crucial. Furthermore, reaction times are significantly shorter. The sluggish drones can only engage stationary targets.**
Kyiv's Version of the Iskander Missile
In essence, the Kyiv missile would be the equivalence of Russian Iskander missiles. These can also combat aircraft or rocket launchers if they momentarily halt. Apart from striking targets in Russia's interior, such missiles also impact the frontline. Due to their extensive range, rocket launchers do not need relocation to engage at any specific location along the front.**
This was demonstrated by the Russians in the Kursk region after August 8. There, their understrength forces were taken by surprise by the Ukrainians, but the Russians were still able to unleash significant firepower in that area. They only needed reconnaissance drones to assign targets to their Iskander missiles.**
Long-term Development of the Missile
Zelensky didn't offer further information. However, it's suspected that it's an extended-range variant of the Sapsan (Wanderfalke) system developed in Ukraine, or the Hrim-2 (Thunder). Hrim-2 is a tactical short-range missile with a range of 280 kilometers, designed for export with a restricted range to adhere to international agreements.
The original version, the Sapsan system, was intended to have a range of 500 kilometers. Development started in 2006, prior to tensions with Russia. It was meant to replace the aging Soviet Totschka-U system, which had a range of only 120 kilometers and relied on Russian components.**
Ukraine has always possessed the necessary expertise for missile production. The Pivdenne Design Bureau, which designed satellites and intercontinental missiles during the Soviet era under the name OKB-586, was responsible for this. The development and manufacture of the weapon were hindered by financial constraints. An attempt was made again after 2014/15. A test battery was ordered in 2021, and funds for the completion of the program were reportedly approved in June 2023. This appears to have occurred.**
President Zelensky's announcement carries little significance. It's unclear what the rocket's range is. Ukrainian sources mentioned 1000 kilometers in 2023. It's likely that only individual prototype models have been created thus far. Whether and how far plans for industrial-scale production have progressed is unknown. The same applies to the heavy-duty vehicle required to transport the rocket. Developing their own long-range weapons liberates Kyiv from the constraints of its partners.
However, a rocket system with this range is not an inexpensive weapon like small drones that can be built in backyard workshops, where all components can be purchased on the global market and only the frame needs to be 3D printed. It's a challenge to produce a ballistic rocket with a range of 700 or 1000 kilometers in Ukraine under the Russian threat. Kyiv could decentralize the production and assembly of individual modules and transport the final assembly to a secure location, such as an old mine or tunnel.
Therefore, the deployment of larger quantities of these rockets will likely take some time. But if they succeed in establishing a mass production line, Kyiv's options in the war year 2025 will significantly expand. These rockets threaten Russian air force bases and weapons factories. Or even the launchers of the Iskander rockets. Moreover, Moscow would need to develop a suitable air defense for the major cities of the country.
One should not expect miracles. Ultimately, Kyiv is only developing a weapon that Russia has long had in large quantities.
Air warfare will become more intense and deadly
Not only Kyiv, but Russia is also increasing its weapons production. The hope that Russia would run out of smart weapons has not been realized. Therefore, air warfare is becoming more intense year by year. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has manufactured a low-cost rocket yet, as is the case with drones.
An extended missile is generally more intricate than a drone propelled by a superior moped motor. Such a creation isn't out of reach. In the year 2011, Danish DIY enthusiasts launched a nine-meter-long, 1.6-ton missile, primarily made up of hardware store components. Although their design would require enhancements, the production cost for each unit was merely 50,000 euros. The traditional concept of the juggernaut rocket could potentially be resuscitated. In this scenario, a straightforward, mass-manufactured engine, shaped like a tube, is assembled to form a substantial rocket.
References: War Zone, Defence 24, Politico, BNE, Welt
The successful development and deployment of Kyiv's domestically produced ballistic missile could potentially shift the balance of power in the ongoing conflict with Russia, as these missiles have a range capable of reaching key strategic targets within Russian territory, such as airforce bases and weapons factories. The capabilities of the Kursk region were demonstrated when understrength Russian forces were surprised and engaged by Ukrainian forces, highlighting the potential impact of these long-range missiles.
