Russian war blog: Kiev forces continue to advance in Kursk
Moscow claims that the Ukrainian advance in the border region of Kursk has been halted. However, Russian military bloggers contradict the statements from the Kremlin. According to them, Kyiv's units continue to advance.
The Ukrainian army has been pushing forward its surprise offensive across the border into the Russian region of Kursk for the third day in a row, making territorial gains. While both the civilian Russian authorities in Kursk and the Ministry of Defense in Moscow officially stated that the Ukrainian advance had been stopped, the Russian military blog Rybar, which is close to the ministry, painted a different picture. According to it, the Ukrainians are still advancing, pulling in reserves at night and beginning to fortify their positions.
Russia's response to the cross-border offensive was slow to come. The state of emergency was declared over the Kursk region, where thousands are fleeing. The train stations in the border towns of Sudzha, Korenovo, and Psel were closed to passenger traffic, as reported by the Moscow Railway Directorate. Injured people, mainly children, from the Kursk region were taken to hospitals in the capital, and doctors were sent back to the combat zone.
Rybar: West of Sudzha under Ukrainian control
The Ministry of Defense in Moscow stated that the advance of Ukrainian troops was prevented thanks to the efforts of border troops, brought-up reserves, air strikes, and artillery fire. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin during a video conference that about 100 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and more than 200 were injured in the fighting. These figures cannot be independently verified.
Meanwhile, Rybar reported that the western part of the town of Sudzha is under Ukrainian control. Fighting is ongoing for the eastern part of the town. Additionally, the Ukrainians have advanced north towards Anastasyevka and northeast towards the settlement of Korenovo, which is about 20 kilometers from the border.
Local reports suggest there is no Ukrainian presence in Sudzha itself. Only shooting and artillery fire are reported north and west of the town. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian reconnaissance units have also advanced towards the Kursk nuclear power plant and have been spotted near Anastasyevka, about 27 kilometers from the border. In the evening, Russian war bloggers reported that an evacuation operation was underway in Bolshoe Soldatskoe, a small town about 30 kilometers from the border.
"The Ukrainian army can surprise"
Officially, Ukraine continues to remain tight-lipped about the advance into enemy territory, which began on Tuesday. The morning report of the General Staff did not mention the offensive. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during the presentation of a mobile app for the military: "The Ukrainian army can surprise. And it can achieve results." In his evening video address, Zelensky said that Russia must feel the consequences of the war it started. "Russia brought the war to Ukraine, now it should feel what it has done."
In the vicinity of Sudzha, there is a gas metering and compressor station that is crucial for Russian gas exports to the West and is reportedly under Ukrainian control. Nevertheless, the Russian gas giant Gazprom reported only a minor decrease in transit. The transit from Sudzha goes through Ukraine and further into Slovakia and Austria. Despite the ongoing war, 14.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas were transported to the European Union in 2023 via this route.
In previous advances from Ukrainian territory into Russia, only irregular units were deployed. This time, however, regular Ukrainian troops with tanks, artillery, and air defense are reportedly advancing. According to Russian reports, among the attacking units are three mechanized brigades, namely the 22nd, 32nd, and 88th. The move across the border signifies a change in Kyiv's military strategy, which has so far focused on the recovery or defense of its own territories, with Russian territories being targeted from the air using its own drones and rockets. Most Western arms suppliers have restricted the use of their weapons to Russian military targets in Ukraine.
The goal of the advance remains unclear, as Ukraine needs its troops to stabilize the crumbling front in the Donetsk region. On the other hand, the attack gives Ukraine the element of surprise. It is possible that Ukraine wants to force Russia to redeploy its forces after Moscow recently gained ground in the Donbass and pushed Kyiv's troops on the defensive. There is also speculation that Ukraine wanted to preempt a Russian attack on its territory in Sumy. Russia had opened a new front near the large eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in May.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, said that the attacks in the border region would make Russia "realize that the war is slowly creeping into Russian territory." This, he said, would certainly give the Russians a scare. "When will it be possible to lead a negotiating process in such a way that we can pressure them or get something from them? Only when the war doesn't unfold according to their scenarios," he said.
"At a time when Ukrainian defenders are being pushed back in several sectors in the east, the deployment of capable combat troops in Kursk is either a brilliant counterstroke to shift the balance of the war or a strategic mistake," wrote US expert and former general Mick Ryan on Twitter.
The Commission, which focuses on international diplomacy and conflict resolution, has expressed concern over the border tension between Ukraine and Russia in Kursk. Despite Moscow's claim of halting the Ukrainian advance, The Commission is monitoring the situation closely, particularly the reports of Ukrainian control over the western part of Sudzha and territorial gains towards Anastasyevka and Korenovo.
