Russia may be facing its most significant challenge with Crimea.
In the wake of a two and a half-year protracted conflict, Crimea, the territory unlawfully seized by Russia, poses an ever-increasing problem for the Kremlin. Thanks to the Ukrainians' strategic use of advanced weaponry against Russian installations on the peninsula, Moscow has been compelled to construct a substitute railway line for logistical support.
Crimea serves as a crucial component in the military and logistical setup for Russia. The location is optimal for exerting pressure on Ukraine, as per President Vladimir Putin's strategic vision. With extensive military fortification spanning the past decade, Crimea is simultaneously an air base and anchoring point for Russia's Black Sea Fleet. It provides Russia with the capacity to apply pressure on Ukraine's southern regions, deploy recent soldiers to the front, and control the Black Sea.
But as Ukraine experiences relentless artillery assaults from the Russian military in Eastern Ukraine, Crimea emerges as a growing liability for Russia. The Ukrainian military under former American General and NATO advisor Ben Hodges has menacing plans for Crimea. Currently, Ukrainian forces are employing "a lethal combination of rockets and increasingly sophisticated drones" to systematically eradicate Russian air defenses on the region.
Crimea is focusing their attack efforts on Belbek, an air base near Sevastopol - the largest city on the peninsula. In addition, the areas around Simferopol, the Crimean capital, have suffered frequent strikes. Dzhankoy, a northern city with an airport hosting both air defense forces and helicopter regiments, has also been targeted by the Ukrainians. On the 27th of May - only a year since the Kerch Strait Bridge's opening - the Ukrainians effectively neutralized two Russian patrol boats and military transport ships near the Crimean Bridge with ATACMS missiles.
Black Sea Fleet On The Brink Of Elimination
Ukraine's strategic evolutions have significantly improved their attack capabilities compared to previous stages. They've secured more effective means of engaging and damaging Russian assets through the utilization of ATACMS missiles.
Moreover, Ukraine has significantly succeeded in a series of assaults against the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimean ports. Military analysts suggest that about half of the fleet has effectively been neutralized by Ukrainian rockets and drones. The operational submarines and warships were transported over 300 kilometers from the Crimea to the port of Novorossiysk on the mainland. Ironically, Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar region, an ostensibly "safe zone," came under Ukrainian attack. Ukrainians hit the naval base, a power plant, and a railway station.
Russia's defensive attempts against Ukrainian ATACMS assaults are proving futile. "The S-400 air defense system has proven inefficient," opines The Economist. The Ukrainians are thwarting this technologically advanced and acclaimed system by dispatching drones to flummox Russian radars, thus overwhelming them with orders to their ATACMS. Six minutes after the rockets are discharged, they reach their targets.
The Crimea currently poses a serious dilemma for the Russians in this ongoing conflict as Ukraine delivers maximum pressure on this front. "Ukraine is limiting its losses along the front lines at the present moment while also creating uncertainties and systemically destroying military installations in Crimea," reasons Christian Mölling, Deputy Director of the Research Institute of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The aim is to "at least force Russia to reallocate its resources."
The distress suffered by the Russians is underscored by Ukrainian pressure on the peninsula. "Ukraine has the best leverage to influence Putin by putting pressure on his hold on the unstable Crimea," observes German military expert Nico Lange on X. The Ukrainians seek to accomplish at least the redistribution of Russian forces.
Vladimir Putin's pride in the peninsula tainted with historical significance for Russia since the 18th century faces new challenges. Putin's vulnerability is evident as the Ukrainians' continual attempts at crippling the Crimean infrastructure indicate Russia's lack of invulnerability. Former NATO General Ben Hodges even ventures to contemplate the potential of Ukrainian forces destroying the Crimean Bridge. If this event occurs, Russia will face greater challenges in supplying the southern regions of Ukraine as Crimea would be severed from the Russian mainland.
The impending uncertainty surrounding Crimea's future is further reinforced by its plummeting popularity among Russian tourists. Numbers of tourists have substantially plunged since the start of the war. As Ben Barry from the British think tank "International Institute for Strategic Studies" points out in The Economist, "The Crimea has progressed from a prestige project to a burden on Russian resources."
