- Russia is fighting the Ukrainian offensive at home
The Ukrainian army has made significant gains on the third consecutive day of its surprise offensive into the Russian region of Kursk, despite official Russian statements claiming the advance has been halted. While Russian civil authorities and the Ministry of Defense in Moscow maintained that the Ukrainian push had been stopped, the Russian military blog Rybar, which is close to the ministry, painted a different picture, suggesting that Ukrainian forces were continuing to advance, reinforcing their positions, and fortifying their lines.
The Russian response to the cross-border offensive was initially slow. The region of Kursk, where thousands have fled, was declared a state of emergency. Train stations in border towns such as Sudja, Korenovo, and Psel were closed to passenger traffic, according to the Moscow Railway Directorate. Injured civilians, particularly children, from the Kursk region were transported to hospitals in the capital, and doctors were sent back into the combat zone.
Blog reports Ukrainian control in the west of Sudja
The Ministry of Defense in Moscow attributed the prevention of Ukrainian troops' advance to the efforts of border guards, reinforcements, air strikes, and artillery fire. However, the military blog Rybar reported that the western part of the town of Sudja was under Ukrainian control, and fighting was ongoing in the eastern part. Additionally, Ukrainian forces were reported to have advanced north towards Anastasevka and northeast towards Korenovo.
Local reports, however, did not confirm the presence of Ukrainian forces in Sudja itself, with only reports of shooting and artillery fire to the north and west of the town. Unconfirmed reports also suggested that Ukrainian reconnaissance units had advanced towards the Kursk nuclear power plant and were spotted near Anastasevka.
Experts from the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed, based on information from social media, that Ukrainian troops had advanced at least ten kilometers into Russian territory. Officially, Ukraine maintained a degree of secrecy regarding the incursion into enemy territory that began on Tuesday. The morning report from the General Staff did not mention the offensive. However, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during the presentation of a military app, "The Ukrainian army can surprise. And it can achieve results."
Russian gas exports continue normally
A gas metering and compression station located in Sudja, which is crucial for Russian gas exports to the West and is believed to be under Ukrainian control, did not result in a significant reduction in gas transit. Gazprom, the Russian gas company, reported that it expected to pump around 37.3 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, which is about 5% less than the previous day, according to the state-owned Russian news agency TASS. This transit route passes through Ukraine and continues into Slovakia and Austria. Despite the ongoing war, 14.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas were transported to the European Union via this route in 2023.
While previous advances from Ukrainian territory into Russia involved only irregular units, this time, according to reports, regular Ukrainian troops with tanks, artillery, and air defense are moving in. This step across the border signifies a change in Kyiv's military strategy, which had previously focused on the recovery or defense of its own territories, with Russian territories being targeted from the air with its own drones and rockets. Most Western arms suppliers have limited the use of their weapons to Russian military targets within Ukraine.
However, the EU saw this advance as covered by the right to self-defense. "We believe that Ukraine is conducting a legitimate defensive war against an illegal aggression," said a spokesperson for EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in Brussels. Self-defense includes the right to attack the enemy on its own territory. The EU stands behind Ukraine's efforts to restore its territorial integrity and sovereignty and to combat Russia's illegal aggression.
Surprise element for Ukraine
However, the target of this advance remains unclear, as Ukraine needs these troops to stabilize the crumbling front in the Donetsk region. On the other hand, the attack gives Ukraine an element of surprise. Possibly, Ukraine wants to force Russia to redeploy its forces after Moscow recently gained ground in the Donbass and pushed Kyiv's troops on the defensive. There is also speculation that Ukraine wanted to preempt a Russian attack on its territory in Sumy. Russia had opened a new front near the large eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in May.
"At a time when Ukrainian defenders are being pushed back in the east on several fronts, the deployment of capable combat troops in Kursk is either a brilliant counterstroke to shift the balance of the war or a strategic mistake," wrote US expert and former general Mick Ryan on the social network X.
Moscow military observers, however, said that the Ukrainian attack on Russian territory, allegedly also with weapons from NATO countries, could further increase motivation among the Russian population to continue the war. Russian state television showed how waves of support were rolling in from many parts of the country to support the people in Kursk.
The EU has expressed its support for Ukraine's actions, stating that Ukraine is conducting a legitimate defensive war against Russian aggression. The EU stands behind Ukraine's efforts to restore its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
In response to EU's stance, a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the EU's support, claiming it was an encouragement for further Ukrainian aggression against Russian territory.
