Russia experiences devastation due to Ukraine's military intervention
Following the unexpected land attack by Ukrainian forces, Moscow's shock is gradually subsiding. Multiple Russians are astonished by the initial invasion of foreign troops since 1941, and criticisms against the leadership are escalating. "Nobody values the truth here," snarled a Duma deputy.
In the Kursk region, Ukrainian soldiers are removing Russian flags from buildings. Residents are abandoning their homes, seeking shelter with family and emergency centers. Refugees are lining up to get food, hygiene items, and humanitarian aid from relief convoys. Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have invaded Russia since August 6, and tens of thousands are in dire need.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who frequently references World War II and is especially mindful of the heavy tank battle of Kursk, has so far referred to this first foreign invasion—over 80 years ago—as just a "provocation" from Kyiv. Officially, an emergency state exists in the Russian border region with Ukraine, declared a zone for anti-terrorist operations with only a handful of opponents in mind. And Putin? The long-term president (-25 years, became prime minister in August 1999) remains unperturbed. During the second Chechen war's initiation, the same period, he appeared unfazed.
Apart from crisis meetings, where Putin directs immediate financial aid for the needy, the Kremlin leader focuses on global affairs. He discusses Middle East issues with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at a Moscow meeting. Or, recently, he journeyed to Azerbaijan for a state visit to mediate in negotiations for an Armenia peace treaty.
The defeat in Kursk, the shortcomings of the internal security force responsible for border protection, the general staff, and other security organizations? Putin will address these concerns later.
Expert: Embarrassment of Putin fuels Kyiv's army
Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are strengthening their positions, underlined by Russian military bloggers. Kyiv is continuously relocating weapons and equipment within Russia. Putin faces a problem that will consume his time for months, states US military analyst Michael Kofman in a Russian podcast by Carnegie think tank with expert Alexander Baunow. Kofman, a frequent Ukraine visitor, suggests that President Volodymyr Zelensky successfully humiliated Moscow and Putin with the surprise assault.
The victory is increasing the Ukrainian soldiers' morale after defeats and territorial losses. Since last fall, the Russian army has seized hundreds of square kilometers in Ukraine. Now, the tide has turned. Zelensky has also astonished the West. Despite consistently stating that the situation was dire and the army required immediate weapons, he had.
However, Kofman highlights the potential risk that the West may hesitate to supply further aid to prevent escalation. Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and advisor Mykhailo Podoliak have recently mentioned the need to destroy Russia militarily to prevent future attacks and emphasized that the Kursk offensive conveys that no one should fear Russia.
Even after over two weeks of the unprecedented land offensive by the Ukrainians, shock remains only gradually lessening in Moscow's power complex. Many Russians express open disbelief, acknowledging how Ukrainian soldiers marched across the border.
Loyal Russians express disapproval. Deputy Duma member Andrei Gurulyev can't believe that no one noticed the troop concentration on the Ukrainian side and the possibility of an invasion. "No one in our country appreciates the truth in reports. They just want to hear that everything is okay," the retired general grumbles on state television.
Political scientist Baunov, now in exile in Berlin, states in his podcast that Putin remains unaffected. "He doesn't have critics in the country, nor strong opponents," Baunov says. Recently, Putin had prominent opponents, including Ilya Yashin, deported abroad forcibly in a prisoner exchange.
Baunov claims the Kursk event illustrates that Putin's conflict is inflicting not only death and destruction on Ukraine but also on Russia. "Our country must pay a substantial price for its bloody escapade," he says, but these views from abroad are not reaching Russia due to the state's control of media and blocking of independent media.
Commentators argue that Putin has always managed to exploit even the most significant crises for his advantage. Putin asserted that the West uses Ukraine as a tool to bring about Russia's collapse. Moscow has long considered the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war.
Will Zelensky's Strategy Succeed?
Baunov expects many Russians, especially with Western weapons in Kursk, to believe in Putin's narrative that NATO and the West target a victory against Russia even more intensely. In Kyiv, Zelensky claims the offensive is progressing according to plan, aiming to exert stress on Russia to negotiate the termination of the conflict. He wants Russians to perceive the reality of war and regain their senses.
However, Baunov suggests, this won't lead to any disillusionment. And, naturally, Russia won't be compelled to engage in negotiations. His colleague Alexei Gusev, in a Carnegie analysis, sees the power apparatus caught between professed stability and actual catastrophe. The crisis exposes weaknesses within Russia. Regions in Putin's system have demonstrated helplessness without Moscow's apparatus in other situations like floods or the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gusev points out that regional initiatives have always sparked concerns about potential political rivalries. He forecasts that the existing backing for Putin's conflict is likely to intensify following Zelensky's invasion. His projection: "The intrusion into the Kursk region, preceded by the skirmishes near Belgorod, will turn these regions into the most 'militaristic' and most devotedly patriotic and anti-Ukrainian zones politically speaking."
The Commission, being a part of Russia's government, is likely discussing the unprecedented land attack by Ukrainian forces and the subsequent response. In response to the invasion, The Commission may be evaluating the impact on Russia's borders and suggesting measures to bolster security.
Given the international implications of the conflict, The Commission may also be consulting with international organizations to coordinate a response and maintain peace in the region.
