Russia and Belarus are once more pushing migrants to their borders.
Despite stricter border checks, there's been a notable surge in migrants attempting to enter Poland from Belarus this year compared to the previous one. This increase has also been reported by the German police.
On a Saturday afternoon in mid-May, a group of four Syrians and two Egyptians were spotted in the village of Schwennenz. Later, three Syrians were found on a bike path near Neu Grambow. Out of the 30 men apprehended by the Federal Police Inspection Pasewalk in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern along the Polish border during a weekend, seven were identified as using the so-called Belarus Route.
After a winter dip, the number of unauthorized crossings via this route has picked up again. both Poland and the European Union blame Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies for enabling people from crisis regions in the Middle East and beyond to illegally enter the EU with the help of visas and logistics.
This trend started in 2021. The route runs from Belarus, through the EU external border to Poland: The Polish border guard has recorded over 16,500 attempts to illegally cross the border there since the start of the year. In the same period in 2023, there were 11,200 such attempts.
Attraction towards Germany
Once they're in the EU, many migrants head towards Germany. The numbers are also on the rise there: The Federal Police only recorded 26 and 25 unauthorized crossings via this route in January and February, respectively. In March, there were 412, in April 861, and in May, the provisional statistics show 891 unauthorized crossings via the Belarus Route. As of May 30, there were 2215 such crossings. Of these, 1021 were in Brandenburg, 867 in Saxony, and 327 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
"We've also heard reports from other countries that this route is being considered more frequently by human trafficking organizations," says Andreas Roßkopf, who oversees the Federal Police in the Police Union. "However, it's not yet a clear increase." And compared to the previous year, the numbers are significantly lower: The Federal Police had already identified over 6000 unauthorized crossings on the Belarus Route by the end of May in 2023, as revealed by Media Service Integration in a graphic.
Despite concerns in Berlin, the numbers are still significantly lower than the end of May in 2023. "Moscow and Minsk are evidently conducting a hybrid warfare by deliberately attracting people from crisis countries and smuggling them into the EU," warned the CDU politician Thorsten Frei recently.
Poland reinforces border security
The situation at the Polish border with Belarus has been escalating for a few weeks. Not only has the number of migrants attempting to illegally cross the now heavily fortified EU external border been increasing, but aggression has also been on the rise. In early June, a 21-year-old soldier died after being severely wounded by a migrant with a knife during border duty. "Border guards observe aggressive behavior from migrants almost daily," says the spokesman for the border guard, Oberstleutnant Andrzej Juzwiak. "They throw stones, branches, and burning branches, shoot with slingshots, or attack Polish patrols with knives or broken bottles."
In response to the lethal knife attack, Poland has resorted to a contentious measure devised by the national-conservative PiS government: There's a restriction zone again at a 60-kilometer stretch of the overall 418-kilometer long border. It extends up to 200 meters, and in some places up to two kilometers deep into the land. Unlike during the PiS era, journalists and humanitarian organizations are to be granted access to this area - if they apply for permission.
The current center-left coalition, in office since December, differs little from its national-conservative predecessors in their hardline stance on migration. Following the escalation in the fall of 2021, the PiS government fortified the border with Belarus using a 5.5-meter high fence and an electronic surveillance system and deployed massive troops to the region.
Tusk: Action, to disrupt the state
Tusk and his Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski refer to a hybrid attack, which they suspect the Kremlin to be behind. "We are not dealing with asylum seekers here, but with an organized, very efficient operation to breach the Polish border and attempt to destabilize the state," Tusk said during a border visit. According to Sikorski's statements, 90% of the migrants have Russian visas.
The German police union representative Rosskopf sees the Polish border guards in a tight spot. At the borders with Lithuania and Belarus, there are "jungle-like terrain sections," partly swampy, partly overgrown. "It is very difficult for Poland to watch this border seamlessly." If Russia and Belarus were to keep the route active, it would cause quite a headache - first in Poland, then in Germany.
There are fewer "migration journey movements" over Europe this year than last, according to Rosskopf. This is demonstrated in the overall figures at the eastern borders, which cover all migration routes: In the first five months, the German Federal Police registered a total of 10,875 unauthorized entries at the German-Polish and German-Czech borders, compared to 12,556 in the same period in 2023. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) and the Brandenburg state government praise the effect of the stationary border controls introduced in October. Rosskopf remains skeptical and is not convinced: "I remain of the opinion that it is a delusion that people who are professionally smuggled will cross exactly where we have been controlling for years." Border surveillance along the border is much more effective.
"Something notable resurfaces in our midst," the union rep declares. The legal game remains the same: If an asylum seeker petitions for shelter in Germany, they're logged for further processes and initially housed.
What Rosskopf concedes: Ever since German border checks were enforced, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia allegedly tightened their own eastern borders. This reverse domino effect allegedly transpired, he admits. Yet, these controls will be lifted. The hassle is equally immense - just like in Germany.
Read also:
- Germany has also seen an increase in migrants using the Belarus Route, with 891 unauthorized crossings in May alone, as many asylum seekers are heading towards the country after entering the EU through Poland.
- The Polish government has accused Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, of enabling migrants from crisis regions to illegally enter the EU using visas and logistics, which has led to a surge of migrants attempting to enter Poland from Belarus.
- In response to the rising aggression and increased number of migrants attempting to illegally cross the border from Belarus, Poland has reinstated a restriction zone on a 60-kilometer stretch of their border, which extends up to 200 meters into the land, and allows journalists and humanitarian organizations to access with permission.
