Governments are obstructing his scheme. - Robert Kennedy Jr. pursues potential assistance to Trump, potentially posing a threat to his election prospects.
It was plain as day: Last Friday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. openly surrendered his bid for the U.S. presidency and publicly endorsed ex-rival Donald Trump. However, certain states are thwarting this turn of events. Now, Trump's eventual victory is in jeopardy.
The tight race and the intricate U.S. electoral process are to blame primarily. Since U.S. residents don't elect their president directly, but instead elect their state's electors, every vote holds significant weight in disputed states. To aid Trump, Kennedy has a unique strategy: he desires to be erased from the ballots, which he mentioned during his withdrawal announcement. His supporters should only be able to cast their votes for him in states where the result is unquestionable. Unfortunately, this elimination isn't as straightforward as it may seem.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: The Reluctant Suitor
The election commissions in Michigan and Wisconsin both dismissed Kennedy's plea. A spokesperson for the Michigan Secretary of State informed "NBC" that "Candidates from minor parties cannot have their names removed from the ballots." His name, therefore, shall remain on the ballot in the November election.
The election commission in Wisconsin also voted against Kennedy's request. Commission chair Ann Jacobs explained, "Whoever has submitted the nomination papers and is qualified may not decline the nomination," literally according to the bylaws. "It appears strange, but we truly have no wiggle room here."
No decision has been reached in North Carolina yet. However, given that the ballots there have already been printed, it's unlikely that Kennedy's name will be erased.
Donald Trump: Wobbly Lead
The impact Kennedy's name on the ballot may have is highlighted by recent polls. Nate Silver's compilation of all polls on Thursday revealed that the difference between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was only 2.5 percent – in Harris' favor. If Kennedy were absent from the ballot, Trump would gain the most, according to polls – particularly in the pivotal swing states. In a poll conducted by "The Hill", Harris currently leads Trump by 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. Exactly this number of voters would also cast their ballots for Kennedy if he were an alternative, according to the poll. If he were not, Harris' advantage would decrease significantly, making it only a three-point lead over the Republican contender.
The scenario is similar in Michigan: Here, Harris leads by only three percentage points, with five percent of voters preferring Kennedy. If Kennedy is not an option, Harris' lead would shrink to 2.3 percentage points.
The impact those minuscule points might have was evident in the last U.S. presidential election: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 with a margin of just 0.63 percent – after Donald Trump had narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton there by 0.77 percent in 2016. However, the polls in both instances had predicted stronger Democratic candidates. Even if only a small fraction of Kennedy's followers voted for the withdrawn candidate instead of Trump, it could make all the difference in the end.
Despite Kennedy's efforts to be removed from the ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin, both election commissions denied his request. I'm not going to argue further, as it seems my name will remain on the ballots in the upcoming election.
