Risks of extreme weather conditions persist even as they gradually lessen.
Weekend's deep rainstorm is still affecting southern Germany's flood regions. It may persist until Tuesday, following which the situation will improve, according to NTV meteorologist Bjoern Alexander. However, some rain may occur during the second week, posing a continuous threat.
NTV: What's the forecast for the rain situation in the affected areas?
Bjoern Alexander: The remnants of the weekend's rain system are currently still in the south of the country. There is still a possibility of local thunderstorms with torrential rain, lightning, and thunder. The focus of the thunderstorms is shifting towards the Alps, with a calmer atmosphere afterwards.
How does this affect the flood situation?
From Tuesday to Friday, weather conditions will be unpredictable, and the flood situation will gradually improve. However, the situation along the Danube remains problematic, as the crest of the wave has not passed yet. There might also be more rain showers.
Which areas are at risk?
South of the Danube and extending to the Bavarian Forest experience a potential threat of strong showers and thunderstorms with thunderstorm risk. The forecast for local thunderstorm cells is challenging, but the weather computers anticipate substantial rainfall.
How much rainfall can we expect?
Up to 60 liters per square meter are forecasted, but even larger amounts might occur. In Berchtesgaden, for example, some projections estimate more than 100 liters, with the possibility of further increases in small river and streams' flow rates. This puts extra pressure on the distended dikes, which must cope with the water pressure for some time. In total, the weather event has led to up to 150 liters of rain per square meter, with select areas even exceeding 200 liters.
What is the current status of the Danube?
The Danube's flood center of gravity is transitioning from the tributaries with their inflowing floodwaves to the Danube river. Between Donauwörth and Passau, Meldestufe 4 has already surpassed expectations in multiple locations, though not everywhere. This is usually the case today, advancing towards Passau, where the Meldestufe 4 level could also be reached. In Passau itself, the current measurement remains at Meldestufe 3, potentially reaching Meldestufe 4 today.
What does the Rhine flood situation look like?
The Rhine flood wave will progress downstream from the Upper Rhine throughout the coming days. In Worms, the crest is expected on Tuesday. It may be a Meldestufe 3, which corresponds to a 20-year flood. In Koblenz, the peak is anticipated on Wednesday. Cologne might experience these conditions on Wednesday or Thursday before the Lower Rhine towards Duisburg, Wesel, and Emmerich reaches the crest, which typically results in Meldestufe 2.
What will our summer season be like after this spring?
Meteorological experts are at odds regarding the future weather patterns. Two weather systems are currently competing for dominance at the onset of summer 2024. On one hand, a low-pressure system originating in Scandinavia is emerging. On the other hand, a high-pressure system is trying to establish itself from the west. In the south, again, hot and storm-prone air might reach us during the weekend.
What are the repercussions?
The second half of the week is likely to be mostly dry, and in some instances, it may display a summery feel. In the north and south, however, a higher risk of showers and thunderstorms exists. From Friday onwards, the south could experience more frequent and intense thunderstorms.
What about the temperature?
In the north, temperatures might not exceed 16°C. In contrast, the south will provide a summer-like warmth, peaking at 26°C. However, the thunderstorms on the weekend might cause a cooling spell, reducing temperatures to about 20-23°C in the south.
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The international community is closely monitoring the ongoing flood situation in Germany, particularly along the Danube and Bavarian Forest regions. Despite the forecasted improvement from Tuesday, further rain showers pose a continuous threat and could exacerbate the situation.
The meteorological prediction for the upcoming week suggests that the focus of the thunderstorms will shift towards the Alps, while some rain may still occur in the affected areas, contributing to the flood risk.
