Upcoming European elections. - Right-wing victories and heightened pressure on Scholz from European elections.
Following the European elections, conservative parties are rejoicing. In Austria and France, for instance, right-wing populists are the strongest political force. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) also experienced notable progress and emerged as the frontrunner in the east. The coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) was dealt a defeat, which is not a promising sign for the state elections in three eastern German states later this year.
Based on the official statement released by the Federal Election Commissioner on her website after tallying all 400 districts on Monday morning, the Union has slightly increased its share to 30.0% (2019: 28.9%). The AfD recorded its best-ever performance in a national election with 15.9% (2019: 11%), albeit below preliminary survey estimates. In Eastern Germany, the party is reigning supreme. The SPD, which also campaigned with Chancellor Olaf Scholz as its main figure, slumped to 13.9% (15.8%). The Greens declined to 11.9% (20.5%), while the FDP only sustained a slight loss, obtaining 5.2% (5.4%).
The Left Party stumbled to a dismal 2.7% (5.5%), representing its worst outcome in European elections. The Party BSW managed to secure 6.2% without any prior presence. The Free Voters ended up with 2.7% (2.2%), and Party Volt reported 2.6% (0.7%).
In Germany, differently from Bundestag and state elections, there's no threshold for European elections, which means there isn't a 5% cutoff. The voter turnout is projected to be 65%. It was 61.4% in 2019, with Germany ranking fifth among the 27 EU nations. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds were allowed to cast their votes in a European election. Here are four questions that have surfaced after the result:
Could the AfD potentially have minister-presidents in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg after the elections?
Given the possible outcome of the state elections closely resembling the European one, the AfD could come close to establishing this position – and it's not out of the question in Saxony. Were the state election results to mirror the European election results, it's conceivable that only the AfD, CDU, and Left Party (BSW) would enter the state parliament, and all other parties might fail to reach the 5% threshold. If the CDU and BSW also decreased their seats compared to the AfD, which appears likely based on the European election results, they wouldn't be able to stop an AfD ministry.
To what extent does the election result threaten Scholz and the traffic light coalition?
French President Emmanuel Macron made a prompt statement on election night. Just an hour after announcing his centrist bloc's heavy defeat against the Right-Wing National Rally's Marine Le Pen, he declared his intention to hold a new parliamentary vote in three weeks. "I cannot simply ignore what happened tonight," he stated.
Whilst it's uncertain whether a similar move could be in store for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who garnered the poorest outcome for the SPD in a nationwide election, the Union is already calling for his resignation. Moreover, there's a historical precedent for this: when former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder called for a new Bundestag election in 2005 following a loss in North Rhine-Westphalia to achieve the same goal.
Scholz isn't known for his drastic reactions; on election night, he casually walked through the election party at the Berlin Willy-Brandt House, taking selfies with his colleagues, as if everything was normal. The upcoming weeks may be disconcerting for him. The SPD leader, Lars Klingbeil, is hinting at a firmer stance in the coalition. "Our people want to see us fight," Klingbeil mentioned on election night. However, the unreliable Greens and FDP may not sweeten the coalition's readiness to compromise, particularly amid challenging budget negotiations scheduled for July 3rd. The traffic light coalition is likely to experience a turbulent period.
What are the chances that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will assume the role of the Union's chancellor candidate?
The decision has yet to be made. Merz isn't ruling it out. Although it's uncertain that a widespread debate will erupt within the Union about whether the 68-year-old Sauerlander would be the ideal candidate to replace Scholz after the subsequent federal election. Nonetheless, it's not a far-fetched proposition. For example, Merz has previously been chastised for not resonating well with young people or women.
Based on findings from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Sunday, the AfD is neck-and-neck with the Union among young people aged 16 to 24, with both parties securing 17% of their votes. However, the Union only manages to secure half as many votes from young individuals overall. Discussions on Merz's stance on security and immigration within the Union may potentially surface.
In a preliminary analysis conducted by Infratest Dimap for the ARD, roughly 600,000 people shifted their support from the Union to the AfD, 250,000 went to the Left Party (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), and 1.28 million became non-voters. These numbers could be associated with Merz to some extent.
The CDU/CSU's evaluation following the September state elections paints an unfavorable picture for Merz, too. Per Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's analysis on Sunday, a staggering 66% of the German population is unhappy with the federal government, but only 30% are convinced that the CDU/CSU could perform better. Neither Merz nor CSU leader Markus Söder can separate themselves from Scholz in terms of popularity.
Will Le Pen, Meloni, and their counterparts determine the EU's direction?
Unlikely. The direction of the EU is chiefly influenced by the European Council, and the EU elections have no bearing on this. In the European Council, the European People's Party (EVP) holds the largest faction with 13 members.
In the newly formed European Parliament, the EVP will continue to be the most powerful political entity. Even if all right-wing parties synergized, they'd likely have around 200 of the 720 seats, a far cry from a majority. As a result, EVP candidate Ursula von der Leyen doesn't need support from the right-wing extremists to be re-elected as the President of the EU Commission.
Encompassing approximately 360 million EU citizens eligible to cast their votes, the aforementioned elections were the world's largest democratic vote spanning multiple national borders. Besides the Indian parliament elections, these polls marked the only direct vote across national frontiers.
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The election defeat in Europe has added pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his SPD party, as right-wing forces continue to gain momentum in Germany and across the EU. The Bundestag's traffic light coalition, led by Scholz, experienced a setback in the European elections, raising concerns about their prospects in upcoming state elections in three eastern German states.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded its best-ever performance in a national election, securing 15.9% of the votes, and emerging as the frontrunner in Eastern Germany. This result could potentialy lead to the AfD having minister-presidents in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg after the elections, a scenario not favorable to the current German political landscape.
The Union, composed of the CDU and CSU, slightly increased its share to 30.0% in the European elections, while the SPD slumped to 13.9%, representing the worst outcome for the party in a nationwide election under Chancellor Scholz. The CDU/CSU's evaluation following the September state elections paints an unfavorable picture for Union leader Friedrich Merz, who is considered as a potential candidate for the role of chancellor in a future federal election.
In Austria and France, right-wing populists are the strongest political force in the European elections, with the Alternative for Austria and the Right-Wing National Rally in France leading the way. This trend suggests a broader shift towards right-wing politics in Europe, putting pressure on political leaders to address these concerns and maintain stability in their respective countries.
As the EU faces these election results, major political figures such as French President Emmanuel Macron are facing criticism and calls for new elections. In the newly formed European Parliament, the European People's Party (EVP) holds the largest faction with 13 members, providing a counterbalance to the right-wing extremists who have gained ground in several EU countries.
In an effort to address this pressing issue, Olaf Scholz and the SPD have been exploring options to expel severe offenders and clarify their stance on potential Afghan deportations. Lars Klingbeil, the SPD leader, has hinted at a firmer stance in the coalition, but the unreliable Greens and FDP may not sweeten the coalition's readiness to compromise, particularly amid difficult budget negotiations scheduled for July 3rd.
Meanwhile, Sahra Wagenknecht and the Left Party (Bündnis) have secured 6.2% in the European elections, while the Free Voters and Party Volt achieved 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. The FDP only sustained a slight loss in the elections, while the Greens declined to 11.9% compared to their strong performance in 2019.
Looking ahead to the future, the question remains whether Le Pen, Meloni, and their counterparts will determine the EU's direction, especially in the face of policies that many see as divisive and detrimental to the principles of unity and cooperation that underpin the EU. The upcoming weeks may be challenging for Scholz, who needs to navigate these complex political dynamics while maintaining stability and sowing the seeds of hope for his party and the German electorate.
