Right-wing nationalists sink further and further in election polls
In new opinion polls before the decisive round of the French Parliament election this Sunday, the leading right-wing party of Marine Le Pen, Rassemblement National (RN), and its allies are sliding further behind. An Ipsos Institute survey shows the RN and its allies only at 175 to 205 seats in the Parliament, needing 289 seats for an absolute majority. A Harris Interactive survey placed the Right-wingers and their allies at 185 to 215 seats.
The new Left-wing alliance ranks second, according to the Ipsos survey, with 145 to 175 seats. The President's camp follows in third place with 118 to 148 seats. The moderate wing of the Republican Party, which did not join the cooperation with the RN as agreed by party chief Éric Ciotti, is projected to secure 57 to 67 seats. According to Harris Interactive data, the Left-wing alliance could reach 168 to 198 seats, surpassing the government camp with 115 to 145 seats. The moderate Republicans are projected to secure 32 to 63 seats.
With these poll numbers, at least theoretically, there is a prospect for a relative majority for a coalition or alliance beyond the Rassemblement National. Although the Left Party and the President's camp ruled out a coalition before the election, a possible collaboration between the Center-left of President Emmanuel Macron, Socialists, and Greens is conceivable according to the Ipsos analysis. However, the Institute considers the prospects for a governing coalition as low.
According to Harris Interactive data, it is also conceivable that the new Left-wing alliance, comprised of Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left Party, could outperform the RN and become the strongest force in the National Assembly. However, an absolute majority and the ability to govern unchecked are still far from reach for the Left-wing alliance.
France's Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron surprisingly dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections after the disappointing performance of his centrist forces and the high victory of the Right-wingers in the European elections. Macron's personal position is not at stake in this matter.
In light of the election polls, the right-wing nationalists led by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) are expected to secure fewer seats in the upcoming France election, potentially falling short of an absolute majority. Despite the Left-wing alliance being projected to rank second, there's speculation about a potential collaboration between President Emmanuel Macron's centrist forces, Socialists, and Greens, which could potentially challenge the right-wing dominance.
