Right-wing AfD holds lead in Thuringia, CDU closing the gap, BSW at 21% polls suggest.
In the recent European election, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) performed well in Thuringia. However, a survey preceding the state election in September suggests that the AfD's support in this region might slightly dwindle. On the other hand, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) appears to be gaining traction and could potentially form a coalition.
Approximately two and a half months prior to the Thuringia state election, a survey commissioned by Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk indicates the AfD leading in Thuringia, surpassing the CDU and The Left-And Other (BSW). The state-level AfD, under the leadership of Spitzenkandidat Bjoern Hoecke, is reportedly polling at 28%. The CDU, led by Spitzenkandidat Mario Voigt, follows closely with 23%. The BSW could potentially enter the race with a considerable 21%.
The Left, currently leading a minority government in Thuringia under Minister-President Bodo Ramelow, comes in with 11%. The Social Democrats (SPD) are seen at 7%, and the Greens would likely fail to regain their seats in the Thuringian parliament with a mere 4%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) would also have to exit the parliament with less than 3%.
Compared to a survey conducted in March, the AfD loses a point, whereas the CDU gains three points. The BSW improves by six points. All parties composing the current state government are losing: The Left drops by five points, the SPD loses two points, and the Greens lose one point.
During the European election held on June 9, the AfD garnered 30.7% of the votes in Thuringia. The CDU received 23.2%, the BSW 15%, and the SPD 8.2%. The Left received 5.7%, the Greens 4.2%, and the FDP 2.0% - identical to The Party.
Potential CDU, BSW, and SPD Coalition
The coalition formation could prove challenging, as per the survey results, since no notable coalition in Germany could collectively amass a majority without inclusion of the AfD and The Left. Nonetheless, the CDU could potentially forge a coalition with the BSW and the SPD at a state level, though Voigt rules out this possibility on a federal level.
However, when it comes to a direct election of the Minister-President, Amtsinhaber Bodo Ramelow receives the most votes with 47%. Mario Voigt and Bjoern Hoecke follow with 18% each. 17% of respondents did not offer an opinion. The satisfaction with the state government has increased slightly: 39% of respondents answered accordingly, which represents a four-percentage-point increase from three months ago.
The survey involved a total of 1172 representative Thuringian citizens and men and women, interviewed by telephone (687) and online (485) between June 13 and 16, 2024.
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In the aforementioned survey, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is shown to be gaining ground, potentially making a coalition with the BSW and SPD a possibility in the upcoming State elections in Thuringia. The BSW, with a considerable 21%, could play a significant role in any potential coalition, given the close poll numbers between them and the CDU. The AfD, despite still leading in Thuringia, might see a slight decrease in support during the State elections, according to the survey conducted by Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk.
