RFK Jr.'s potential withdrawal might impact a closely fought presidential contest, with Trump anticipating such a move.
With Kennedy approaching thethreshold of leaving the race, both parties will keenly observe his supporters' shift towards a potential endorsee in the final phases leading up to Election Day.
According to reports, Kennedy is expected to publicly announce the suspension of his presidential campaign this upcoming Friday. The likelihood of Kennedy endorsing former President Donald Trump has been a topic of discussion, although it remains uncertain as of now. Set to appear alongside Trump in Arizona on that same day, the latter hinted at having a "special guest" at his event.
Kennedy's campaign had been showing signs of decline, with a recent CBS News survey revealing only 2% of the population supporting him. His decision to exit 74 days before the election adds another intriguing element to an atypical race. With Vice President Kamala Harris significantly gaining momentum, Trump's campaign is optimistic that Kennedy's departure might prove decisive in key battleground states, where election outcomes have previously hinged on razor-thin margins, just like in 2020.
The uncertainty surrounding Kennedy's supporters' next move persists. Determining whether many of them genuinely intended to vote for him or were merely supporting him out of fervor is not straightforward.
Trump's camp perceives Kennedy's campaign, characterized by conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination rhetoric, as potentially benefiting their side, especially in certain strategic states. Drafting plans to attract Kennedy's voters, particularly those who share affinity with Senator Bernie Sanders and the Republican Party's anti-establishment wing, has become a top priority for Trump's advisors. Conservatives-leaning mothers are also seen as a potential demographic that could be swayed.
Top Trump allies, including Donald Trump Jr., have been discreetly working together to secure Kennedy's endorsement. Meanwhile, Trump has extended friendly gestures towards Kennedy, suggesting a possible future Cabinet appointment for him.
“If he endorsed me, I would be honored by it,” Trump declared on Fox News. “I would be very honored by it. He really has his heart in the right place.”
The Democratic National Committee, along with outside aligned groups, has been actively attacking Kennedy since the start of the year, aiming to minimize his influence on the race. In a memo issued on Friday, Ramsey Reid, the committee's third-party candidate watchdog, argued that the impact of Kennedy endorsing Trump would be negligible.
“RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump would change nothing,” Reid stated in the memo. “The scant support that remains is soft, fractured across ideologies, and disproportionately among less engaged voters.”
The Harris campaign, however, extended a peaceful invitation to Kennedy's supporters.
“If they are searching for someone who will truly champion their interests, their values, or someone who appreciates their decision-making autonomy in their lives, then there's a place for them in the Kamala Harris campaign,” Harris' spokesperson, Michael Tyler, said. “We stand for those who want a minimal government interference in their lives.”
Contending Candidate from April 2023
Kennedy embarked on his campaign as a challenger to President Joe Biden back in April 2023. However, he ultimately left the Democratic party in October, deciding to run as an independent candidate.
Blessed with a renowned family lineage – as the son of the late Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy – Kennedy amassed a fervent following from his past advocacy for environmental causes and spreading unsubstantiated vaccine conspiracy theories.
Though his popularity peaked in the double digits, Kennedy's national favorability has since dwindled to mere single digits. Despite these diminishing numbers, Kennedy's campaign sparked concerns within both parties that he could impact crucial states, particularly in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
During last month's Republican National Convention, co-campaign manager for Trump, Chris LaCivita, disclosed their internal polling suggested Kennedy diverted votes from Democrats in Michigan and Wisconsin but "far more from us" in Pennsylvania, whose electoral college votes are one of this year's top prizes.
As the DNC and Clear Choice PAC aggressively campaigned against Kennedy since early this year, their objective was to aggressively taint him as a potential spoiler for Trump by emphasizing his connections with mega-donor Timothy Mellon, who supports both Trump and Kennedy's campaigns.
The DNC and Clear Choice PAC relentlessly battled Kennedy's efforts to secure a place on the ballot in 11 states, all of which were either battleground states or Democratic strongholds. Ultimately, a New York judge blocked him from appearing on the state's ballot earlier this month.
Kennedy's campaign, battling a mountain of challenges and draining tens of millions of dollars, successfully qualified for the ballot in 21 states. As of now, it's uncertain if his name will still appear on the ballots in these states in his absence. Kennedy officially withdrew from Arizona's ballot on Thursday, following an announcement from the office of the state's secretary of state.
If Kennedy withdraws from the race, he'd be disregarding several small parties that declared him as their presidential candidate to secure ballot access in specific states. These minor parties, who in certain states secure ballot access based on their performance in previous elections, might find themselves in a precarious situation.
From an annoyance to a significant issue
Trump's team launched an assault on Kennedy's independent bid early on, tagging him as a radical liberal and amplifying his progressive views. The attacks intensified in spring 2024 as public and internal polls suggested that Kennedy drew equal support from Trump and Biden.
By May, Trump's advisors and external allies transitioned from viewing Kennedy as a nuisance to a serious threat that required elimination. Trump himself joined the chorus, urging undecided voters against casting a "baseless protest vote."
Irritation also grew in response to the favorable coverage Kennedy received throughout the summer from conservative media – beyond Fox News and Newsmax, but also among conservative influencers.
"That coverage was a significant factor in Don Jr. pushing for a means to terminate Kennedy's campaign," a well-informed source mentioned.
Kennedy's alliance with Trump's political sphere had never been far-fetched.
In the summer of 2023, Stone, a seasoned GOP operative close to the former president, hinted at Kennedy as a potential contender for a Cabinet post in a second Trump term. Back in April, a Kennedy campaign official based in New York was fired by the campaign after persistently advocating voter support for Kennedy to improve Trump's chances in states like New York. To Democrats, this incident underscored the perceived uncomfortable camaraderie between the efforts behind Trump and Kennedy.
Confidential discussions between Trump's allies and advisers and Kennedy's team commenced prior to the Republican convention in July. Kennedy's son, Bobby Kennedy III, shared videos of a friendly call between his father and Trump that same month.
During the conversation, the former president appeared to promote doubtful theories about vaccine safety – a recurring theme in Kennedy's public advocacy. Kennedy later apologized to Trump for releasing the video of their call, which was eventually deleted.
For the first time, Kennedy acknowledged at a recent event that his avenue to victory was shrinking and suggested that Trump was "highly likely to secure the next presidency."
Then, on Tuesday, Kennedy's running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted at "collaborating" with Trump to prevent Harris from winning the election.
Since weeks, Trump Jr. has been lobbying his father and the Trump campaign to persuade Kennedy to abandon his campaign and endorse the former president, a source with knowledge of the discussions confirmed.
Besides Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, who is close to Kennedy, as well as businessman Omeed Malik, a Trump donor who has also contributed to Kennedy's campaign, have aided the negotiations.
An endorsement, if it materializes, could be announced as soon as Friday night at Trump's Phoenix-area rally. Trump clarified that "no plans have been finalized." Kennedy is scheduled to speak about "the present historical moment and his course forward" at an event not far from Trump's rally just hours earlier. This will mark Kennedy's first public appearance since July.
An unpredictable character
For months, internal deliberations within Trump's operation have centered on whether Kennedy's endorsement would yield any advantages. Kennedy was an unpredictable personality long before his presidential bid, and his White House quest has added to his collection of controversies.
In May, Kennedy revealed for the first time that a parasitic worm infiltrated his brain and perished, leading to "brain fog" and "struggling with word recall and short-term memory," he stated. Throughout the campaign, Kennedy skirted allegations published by Vanity Fair that he sexually assaulted a former nanny, claiming he "has numerous skeletons in my closet."
"I'm not a churchgoer," Kennedy said when asked about the allegations.
The same Vanity Fair article also published an image that Kennedy allegedly sent to a friend, depicting Kennedy mock-eating a dog carcass. Kennedy disputes that the photo portrayed him consuming a dog.
Earlier this month, Kennedy admitted that a decade ago he placed a bear cub carcass in New York City's Central Park that he had stumbled upon upstate, an incident that seemingly ties back to a 2014 episode that generated national headlines.
However, any second thoughts within Trump's campaign regarding a Kennedy endorsement dissipated when Biden withdrew from the race in late July, and it became clear that Harris would probably lead the Democratic ticket. It was at this point that more people in Trump's inner circle, including several of his top advisors, came to believe that Kennedy's support would be beneficial in a contest that might be determined by the slimmest of margins, two individuals familiar with the talks disclosed.
"The team recognized that RFK Jr. could potentially harm Trump after that. It quickly became apparent that drawing his voters to our side could provide us with an edge, and the behind-the-scenes negotiations to secure his endorsement became more serious," a source familiar with the talks informed CNN.
With Kennedy's campaign gaining momentum, Trump labeled him as a figure on the "extreme left" and criticized his environmental advocacy.
However, Trump and Kennedy had a phone conversation in July, just after Trump escaped an attempted assassination at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The following day, they met in person for the first time in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention's initial day.
During their conversations, the candidates initially explored the idea of Kennedy withdrawing from the race and endorsing Trump, offering him a position in a potential Trump administration. Afterwards, Kennedy announced he would not withdraw from the race.
Recently, Kennedy's campaign reached out to Vice President Harris' campaign, proposing a meeting to discuss endorsing Harris in exchange for a prospective role in her administration. Fortunately, this meeting did not take place.
On Thursday, Shanahan vented her frustration towards the Democrats, blaming them if Kennedy's supporters ended up helping Trump win in November.
She lamented on social media, "Kennedy's former Dem pals" are "frightened by the notion of our movement uniting with Donald Trump."
"Here's a suggestion:", she continued, "Stop suing us. Let us debate. Abstain from manipulating the media and polls. It's a straightforward formula – adapt!" Shanahan concluded.
CNN's Kristen Holmes, Kate Sullivan, and Ethan Cohen were the reporters contributing to this report.
Given Kennedy's expected appearance alongside Trump in Arizona, speculation about a potential endorsement continues to swirl. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee remains skeptical about the impact of such an endorsement, deeming it negligible due to Kennedy's weak support base.
With Kennedy's campaign showing signs of decline and his recent exit from the race, political analysts now focus on the Red-Blue demographic that could be swayed by Trump's efforts to attract Kennedy's supporters, particularly those who share affinity with Senator Bernie Sanders and the Republican Party's anti-establishment wing.
