- Putin's aggression in Donbass is significantly weakening Ukraine's defensive line in the eastern sector
The conflict in the eastern regions throughout the year wasn't beneficial for a free Ukraine. The Russians pushed hard in various places, but the Ukrainians held strong – however, they ultimately had to relinquish some positions. The Russians suffered significant casualties, and their progress was sluggish. In military terms, one might say that Kyiv traded territory for time and lives, if the reports from Kyiv about Russian losses are to be believed.
This strategy proved to be deceiving in February with the fall of the fortified city of Avdiivka. In a hasty retreat, only a portion of the troops managed to escape the encirclement. Many soldiers were captured or killed as they attempted to cross the fields. Here, the full power of Russian pinpoint air attacks was displayed. Over 100 precision bombs rained down on the defenders.
Following this, the Ukrainian front started to crumble. Kyiv had less and less energy for aggressive counterattacks, while the Russians refined their tactics. Their advance might not have been fast, but the situation of the Ukrainian forces looked increasingly bleak. Despite sustained resistance, they were forced to retreat.
The situation worsened further over the course of August with the front disintegrating. Three crucial cities were under immediate threat: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Kyiv was unable to stop the Russians due to a lack of soldiers and equipment. This issue had existed for some time, but since the Battle of Kursk, it had become significantly more severe. Parts of the extensive front lines were barely manned. When the Russians encountered determined resistance from highly motivated elite troops, such as in the high-rise buildings of Toretsk, they first attempted to use pinpoint air attacks. If they failed, they targeted elsewhere with no resistance or where they encountered newly deployed drafted troops. Inexperienced conscripts struggled against the close-quarters combat of small units. In this way, the Russians bypassed the stronger positions of the Ukrainians, who were eventually forced to retreat.
Since the best units fought at Kursk, there was no strength left for an elastic defense. Before, elite formations had supported regular troops like a fire brigade during Russian attacks. Now, counterattacks were reduced to small-scale actions. Sometimes a tank would impede the Russians, sometimes a group of special forces soldiers. They did achieve some success and managed to repel some Russian groups – but these individual actions had no lasting impact.
In the east, the cost of the successes at Kursk is being paid. Putin has not been lured in. So far, few troops have been withdrawn from the east and sent to Kursk. The Russians have kept their strategic goal in the east in focus and are initially accepting Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory. The Ukrainian high command claims that the Russians are throwing their last reserves into the battle in the east and that the crisis will soon be over. However, there is no evidence to support this. Currently, the Russians are intensifying their offensive.
In the Pokrovsk area, Ukrainian bloggers report empty trenches and abandoned positions. Only drones and mines are hindering the Russian advance. Apparently, even drone pilots are being sent to the front to fill the gaps. There are reports that regional commanders are not accurately relaying the true situation at the front. "The situation in the Pokrovsk sector is no longer critical, it is already catastrophic," says Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov.
There is no talk of a chaotic retreat. The remaining troops are withdrawing towards the cities, where they will try to halt the Russians in a shorter front line. At least in Torez, the Russians have already reached the actual territory of the city. They are advancing towards the city center and have bypassed the massive, fortress-like prison on the eastern outskirts of the city. In Pokrovsk, the Russians are approaching the city faster and encircling it from the south. According to Russian bloggers, they have already captured the eastern part of the settlement of Selydove after taking the nearby mine and its waste heap.
So far, the Russians have not captured Chasiv Yar, Torez, and Pokrovsk. However, it is not yet clear that the Ukrainians have successfully established a stable defense in Torez and Pokrovsk. If they fail, it is possible that the Russians will take these cities relatively quickly. If Kyiv is able to control the current crisis, the cities may face the fate of Bachmut or Avdiivka – total destruction. Given the Russian momentum and the current weakness of the Ukrainian forces, an extended defensive battle is not expected.
Three cities will decide the Battle for the Donbass. Pokrovsk is where the main supply lines of the Ukrainian Donbass front converge. With this Russian advance now less than twelve kilometers away, the city can no longer function as a logistics hub. This threat to the supply lines endangers the entire front in the east. Chasiv Yar, Torez, and Pokrovsk protect the city chain from Sloviansk to Kostiantynivka. These large cities are Kyiv's last line of defense in the east. If the Russians gain control of Chasiv Yar, Torez, and Pokrovsk, they will have a superior position to break this line in a later offensive.
It's Challenging to keep the Russian advance at bay without beefing up our infantry, artillery, and tank forces significantly. The issue is whether Kyiv possesses sufficient reserves to bolster the Donbass and carry on with the Kursk campaign. If Kyiv needs to transfer troops from the north to restore order in the east, the Kursk offensive can be considered a failure in essence.
Despite the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian forces have faced difficulties in maintaining a robust defense due to insufficient troops and resources. Other cities, such as Chasiv Yar and Torez, are also under threat, and their fall could significantly weaken Kyiv's position in the east.
In light of these challenges, the Ukrainian high command continues to search for ways to strengthen their defenses and prevent a potential Russian advance. However, the question of whether they have enough reserves to provide reinforcements to the east without compromising other strategic initiatives remains a major concern.
