"Putin is vulnerable" - ISW analyst calls for more pressure
With the offensive in the Kursk region, Ukraine sets an exclamation mark in its defensive struggle. For the first time in a long time. An analyst from ISW calls on the West to take measures to further increase pressure on Russia, which could significantly impact Putin and his troops.
According to analyst Nataliya Bugayova from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region "clearly has the potential to gain momentum." While it's still too early to draw conclusions, the US should help Ukraine "capitalize on this momentum instead of dampening it to regain control over the pace of the war." She criticizes that the United States is only gradually providing aid to Ukraine and that the West is merely focused on containing Russia through countermeasures.
The former CEO of the "Kyiv Post" calls, among other things, for "eliminating safe harbors for Russia's war machine" - essentially allowing attacks on Russian territory with Western weapons. So far, there are strict restrictions on this, including from the US. Kyiv has repeatedly stated that this capability is crucial for repelling Russian aggression.
ISW analyst Bugayova sees a significant Russian vulnerability in its "inability to quickly adapt." "The Kremlin is vulnerable to an opponent that can deny it the opportunity to regroup and adapt." Russia does adapt, but only when given time. It would help Ukraine if the West stopped announcing and leaking "advanced capabilities," or new weapons systems, as the Russian military would react, albeit slowly.
"If US support for Ukraine continues and gains momentum, the Kremlin will have to face growing problems," writes Bugayova. This would also put pressure on important Russian partners like China or Iran, which help maintain the war. "Russia's partnerships require compromises and are vulnerable when both partners are under pressure."
Past successes fueled "hysteria"
Bugayova draws several parallels between the recent Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region and battlefield successes in 2022. "Had the West quickly provided military aid to Ukraine and planned further operations after Russia's defeat in the Battle of Kyiv in the spring of 2022, or even after Russia's offensive in Severodonetsk in the summer of 2022, Ukraine would be closer to a lasting peace than it is today."
President Vladimir Putin has faced real risks in moments when he has been challenged by sustained pressure, writes the analyst. "Ukrainian battlefield successes in the fall of 2022 led to hysteria in the Russian information space, as military humiliation contradicted Putin's attempt to project an image of a 'great Russia.'"
Military defeats, according to Bugayova, have consequences within Russia's power structure. In the past, setbacks have caused cracks in Putin's nationalist base. Recently, the Russian president publicly expressed his displeasure when he rebuked the governor of Kursk during a meeting.
Building pressure is no easy task
Despite Bugayova's call to sustain pressure, Ukraine's current capabilities to potentially inflict military defeats on Russia are still limited, despite recent successes in Kursk. This is due, firstly, to the strict restrictions initially mentioned for attacks using Western weapons on Russian territory, and secondly, to the persistent strong Russian pressure in the Donbass, about which experts have repeatedly warned.
Moreover, there are persistent issues such as personnel shortages and delayed weapons deliveries from the West. Ukraine still has a limited supply of long-range weapons, and according to media reports, it will only receive around 20 Western F-16 fighter jets this year. Additionally, the supply of artillery ammunition from the Czech initiative is not as comprehensive as hoped, according to reports from Prague.
The United States should consider escalating its support for Ukraine in light of the successful offensive in the Kursk region, as suggested by ISW analyst Nataliya Bugayova. This could significantly impact Russia and Putin's troops, potentially leading to additional challenges for Russia's allies like China and Iran.
If the United States continues to provide substantial aid to Ukraine, as Bugayova suggests, it could put pressure on Russia's partnerships and potentially lead to existing cracks within Putin's nationalist base, as seen in the past after military defeats.
