Progressive politicians secure two guaranteed positions in the state legislative body.
The Left in Saxony fails to secure the required five-percent vote share, yet they secure two direct seats in Leipzig, thereby securing a seat in the state parliament. Consequently, the Kenya coalition loses its majority.
In the state election, The Left managed to secure two direct seats in Leipzig. Despite not meeting the projected five-percent requirement, the party was able to secure a position in the parliament due to an intricacy in the Saxon electoral system. The Left's entry into the parliament implied, according to projections, that the previous ruling Kenya coalition comprising of CDU, Greens, and SPD would no longer hold a majority.
Juliane Nagel triumphed in securing a direct mandate for The Left for the third consecutive time. The 45-year-old garnered 36.5 percent of the votes in the Leipzig district, located in the southern Leipzig region. She surpassed Jessica Steiner of the CDU (22.0%) and Alexander Wiesner of the AfD (13.2%) among others. In the Leipzig 1 district, Nam Duy Nguyen garnered an even more impressive approval rating, with the 28-year-old gathering 39.8 percent of the votes post-counting. He outperformed Christin Melcher of the Greens (12.7%) and Cornelia Blattner of the CDU (18.5%) amongst others.
The so-called basic mandate clause in Saxony allows parties with two direct mandates to enter the parliament with the voting power equivalent to their second round results. According to projections, The Left would garner six seats in the parliament. This shift in the seat allocation in the state parliament would mean that the Kenya coalition would no longer hold a majority. Accordingly, CDU, Greens, and SPD would have 58 or 59 seats. The Saxon state parliament typically consists of 120 seats.
"A minority government might be an option"
A coalition between CDU and BSW, potentially with either the SPD or the Greens, is mathematically feasible and politically plausible. The possibility of coalitions with the AfD is ruled out by the other parties. The formation of a coalition is expected to be challenging for Minister President Michael Kretschmer.
The Leipzig political scientist Hendrik Träger suggests that a minority government of CDU and SPD, backed by the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, might be an option. "For this, the BSW would not necessarily need to support the government's bills explicitly, but it would be sufficient if the BSW MPs abstained in the votes. Then, CDU and SPD could also govern with a majority," said Träger. "Such government formats are common, as seen in Scandinavian countries."
Despite not achieving the five-percent vote share required to secure representation through the proportionate system, 'The Left' still managed to secure two direct seats in Leipzig, thereby indirectly gaining a seat in the Saxony state parliament. This unexpected outcome shifted the power balance, potentially leading to a minority government scenario for the Kenya coalition, comprising of CDU, Greens, and SPD.
