Previously Serving General Ryan Endorses Kiev's Strategic Superiority over Moscow
Western leaders ought to take notes from the courageous leadership in Kyiv, suggests Australian ex-general Ryan in his new book. Despite the disappointing western backing for Ukraine, its military maintains key advantages strategically.
After two and a half years of Russia's confrontation with Ukraine, neither victory nor defeat appears in sight. Nonetheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed on Monday to ABC News that Kyiv is getting closer to concluding the war with Moscow. Zelenskyy stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is afraid due to the offensive in the Russian area of Kursk. During a week-long visit to the USA, Zelenskyy is advocating for additional assistance for Ukraine. He involves his four-point plan for success, encompassing military, political, diplomatic, and economic approaches.
Strategies for success are the main topic of the new book by former Major General Mick Ryan, titled "The War for Ukraine - Strategy and Adaptation under Fire." In it, the Australian examines the adaptability of both conflict parties, as well as the USA and NATO countries, and provides an initial analysis of the strategic dynamics of the conflict. Ryan, who releases weekly situation reports and analyses in his newsletter "Futura Doctrina," informs ntv.de: "We can gain valuable insights into how nations become involved in conflicts and how they can deter them."
Why devote an entire 227-page book to these insights? "This conflict represents the most obvious illustration of good versus evil." If this clarity is not sufficient to jolt the West out of its "strategic reluctance" of the past 30 years, Ryan says it's challenging to envision "what else could prompt us towards a more proactive stance in defending our democratic systems against China and Putin and others."
The strategic reluctance of the West, including Germany, is evident in the sluggish pace of arms supplies, contends Ryan to ntv.de. In general, the West lacks an appropriate strategy to end the conflict in Ukraine. "We offer assistance as long as it's needed" is not a strategy, but a slogan, says Ryan. In mid-September, it was revealed that the USA now has a Ukraine strategy – but it remains confidential.
Kursk Operation Shows Adaptability
"The most crucial aspect is ensuring that the intent of the assistance is clear, and that is to help Ukraine to victory," says Ryan. "But we don't see this narrative." He questions if the Ukraine strategy is a minimalist damage control attempt by US officials who might depart from office following the US election. He does not anticipate a significant shift in US policy.
That Zelenskyy is presenting his victory plan in Washington now could be a product of strategic calculation: On August 1, 2024, Ukraine launched its daring operation in the Russian oblast of Kursk. According to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi, its aim is, among other things, to send a message to the western supporters of Ukraine, especially the United States.
It's uncertain if this action will be successful. However, for Ryan, the initial success of the Kursk offensive indisputably demonstrates Ukraine's adaptability to a dynamic conflict. Ukrainian troops have absorbed experiences gained during the counteroffensive last year.
When it comes to strategy and adaptation, there are substantial differences in the approaches of Ukrainians and Russians, according to Ryan. The Ukraine has developed an asymmetric advantage in these two areas against Russia, he concludes. Ryan argues that strategy and adaptation are fundamentally human-centered, with technologies serving as tools.
Ukraine's "Erosion Strategy"
The centralized top-down approach of the Russian military is disadvantageous in this regard, Ryan suggests. The Ukraine has an advantage because its communication networks have flat hierarchies, making the Ukrainian army more adaptable, particularly at the tactical level, which is better suited to changes. This does not imply, according to Ryan, that Russia does not or cannot adapt, but rather that it takes longer and is often less efficient.
Ukraine is pursuing a strategy of "erosion." Ryan identifies seven major components of Ukraine's erosion strategy: purposefulness, global influence campaign, integrated civil-military actions, foreign support, national mobilization of people and resources, conducting a just war, and continuous learning and adaptation.
Ryan asserts that Kyiv aims to undermine Moscow's ability to wage war militarily, politically, and economically through the West. The aim is to ensure that Russia cannot realize its victory theory. Ryan writes that a Russian victory would mean "the subjugation of the Ukrainian state through a combination of occupation and political accommodation." Conversely, Kyiv must erode "Russia's victory theory" through "will" and "endurance."
While Ryan does not predict how the conflict will end, he offers a blueprint for a sustainable Ukrainian victory and outlines how successful Western support should appear. He outlines several sub-goals, including integrating Ukraine into a broader security architecture, either bilaterally or multilaterally, leading to NATO membership. Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression primarily depends on Western countries and their support, which Ryan finds lacking.
Leadership Competence Required for Risk-taking
The root cause, Ryan argues, is the absence of leadership competence among countries. They could also learn from Ukraine's adaptability. Ryan criticizes not only the slow pace of assistance but also the West's strategy of self-deterrence: "This brings us back to the astonishment caused by the Kursk offensive: many politicians were taken aback because they were no longer accustomed to such bold decision-making." This mindset requires change.
In a chat with ntv.de, Ryan stresses the importance of boldness in leadership roles. "It's essential to steps into the political arena and persuade others that your actions are justified, rather than merely catering to people's wishes and trying to execute their desires," he explains, voicing his disapproval. As a military strategist, he highlights the pitfalls of Western hesitance in his book, cautioning, "We should scrutinize and tackle this self-caution after the conflict. Beijing and Tehran's strategists are definitely keeping a close eye on this."
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, Ryan highlights the Kursk operation as an example of Ukraine's adaptability, stating, "The initial success of the Kursk offensive indisputably demonstrates Ukraine's adaptability to a dynamic conflict." Furthermore, Ryan acknowledges that Ukraines' approach to strategy and adaptation gives it an advantage over Russia, stating, "Ukraine has developed an asymmetric advantage in these two areas against Russia."
