- Preparing to Endure Unpleasant Realities - and Other Insights from the Election
Following the seismic outcomes of the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, turbulent times are in store for politics in both states and countrywide. The collation in Berlin, dubbed the "traffic light coalition," remains intact, yet appears shaken to its core and rather perplexed. In Dresden and Erfurt, the quest for majorities commences. Five key topics now surface:
- The political party composition is evolving
The CDU disdains governing with the Left or the AfD. Similarly, it is reluctant to collaborate with the Alliance for Progress and Social Justice (ASW) under ASW's conditions. Yet, due to the intricate election results in Thuringia and Saxony, novel configurations are necessary to avoid stagnation and ungovernability. The CDU must contemplate whether it is amenable to the Left, as suggested by political scientist Oliver Lembcke of the German Press Agency in Erfurt. However, rekindling the debate over the firewall against the AfD will ensue.
Only time will tell if a coalition involving distinct parties will operate more pragmatically than the traffic light coalition in Berlin, which was embroiled in its self-erected barrier on election night: SPD in single digits, Greens clearing the 5% hurdle, FDP unseen. The Left too, experienced a setback, even if federal business manager Katina Schubert insisted on Sunday night that their party was "definitely not extinct."
Lembcke deems the two state elections as a "pivotal moment": "This election expressed frustration against a West German-dominated party landscape and against the traffic light coalition." Much appears to be in flux.
- The AfD could serve as an obstacle
The AfD stands as the chief party in Thuringia and aspires to govern as the victor. It also clinched a record result near 30% in Saxony. However, no one wishes to form a coalition with the AfD, deemed right-wing extremist by constitutional defenders in both states. The party views this as "ignorance of the voter's will," as federal chairwoman Alice Weidel expressed. Thuringia's AfD state chairman Björn Höcke said: "You can't bypass us if you desire stable conditions for Thuringia. Without the AfD, there is no stability for Thuringia."
Thuringia's AfD may enjoy a so-called blocking minority for the first time, at least in Thuringia. As it obtains more than a third of the state parliament seats, it can impede decisions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as electing constitutional judges or state auditors' heads.
Höcke declined the possibility of an AfD block on Sunday night, opting instead to speak of a "shaping minority," and they "definitely don't want to misuse it," asserted the AfD leader.
- Populism propels success - or is it closeness to the public?
Populist attacks from the AfD and ASW in Thuringia and Saxony proved fruitful. They accuse the established parties of practicing politics "at the expense of the people" - and advocate for a fresh start. Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer also garnered votes with his distance from Berlin - in this instance, from the CDU headquarters - and managed to sustain his vote share.
Kretschmer championed a "freeze" of the Ukraine war and an asylum seeker cap at a time when such ideas were not well-received at party headquarters. These issues, pivotal in the east, were concurrently promoted by ASW chairwoman Sahra Wagenknecht. It was fortunate for both that a state government is not responsible for these matters.
"Reviling people has always been a component of democracy," said Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer recently in an ARD podcast. Populism becomes perilous when democratic institutions are undermined. This fragile line is likely to be tested by other politicians as a formula for success. At least: Voter turnout was significantly higher in both states than in 2019, with nearly three out of four eligible voters casting their ballots.
- Protests have failed to deter the AfD
Days before the election, thousands protested in Dresden and Erfurt against right-wing extremism. On Sunday night, around 400 citizens gathered in front of Erfurt's state parliament to protest against the surge of the AfD. These protests have not deterred the AfD, nor have concerns conveyed by churches or economic associations. The party clinched record results in Thuringia and Saxony, albeit perhaps slightly lower without counter-protests.
The polarization between AfD supporters and their adversaries is unyielding. AfD top candidate Höcke merely had to mention a few phrases, such as "gender madness" or "cargo bike", to awaken his supporters at the Erfurt campaign rally, and emotions soared. How both sides will reconcile remains unclear.
- The SPD's genuine test lies in Brandenburg
In about three weeks, on September 22, the state election occurs in Brandenburg. The political conjecture in Thuringia and Saxony may affect this - voters might argue for a bit more stability. However, this third eastern state election holds central significance for the ruling party SPD, as it defends the office of Minister President Dietmar Woidke in Brandenburg, unlike in Thuringia and Saxony.
If things take a turn for the worse, we might be witnessing an intense internal dispute within the SPD, potentially even surrounding Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert subtly suggested this during the current election night. As the head of the government, Scholz is the person most associated with the perception of how Berlin is governed, Kühnert stated on ZDF. "I've encountered numerous individuals in the two states who express dissatisfaction with that."
The SPD will face a significant test in the upcoming Brandenburg state election, as they aim to defend the office of Minister President Dietmar Woidke. The outcome in Brandenburg could be influenced by the political turmoil in Thuringia and Saxony, where voters might seek more stability.
The AfD's success in Thuringia and Saxony, despite protests and concerns from various communities, highlights their resilience and the persistent divide between their supporters and adversaries.
