Power beckons for the far right: But what does Geert Wilders want?

Netherlands - Power beckons for the far right: But what does Geert Wilders want?

Since the big victory for right-wing populist Geert Wilders, poker is being played hard in The Hague. Two weeks ago, Wilders won 37 of the 150 seats in parliament and is now looking for partners to govern with. But the talks are going slowly. The players are cautiously circling each other. This has very little to do with a cute mating dance.

The 150 members of parliament were sworn in today. But for the time being, they cannot yet debate the formation of a government - as originally planned this week. The talks are proceeding so laboriously that the appointed exploratory committee does not want to present its report until next week.

There is great mistrust of the 60-year-old radical right-wing politician from the carnival stronghold of Venlo. There are just as many doubts as to whether his Party for Freedom ( PVV ) can form a government at all. And nobody really knows what Wilders wants.

Option 1 - Radical right-wing government

Wilders wants to govern, or so he says, with the right-wing liberal VVD party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte. And with the new center-right party New Social Contract (NSC) and the smaller right-wing populist Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB). It would be the most right-wing government the country has ever had. However, it would have a comfortable majority and the support of the voters of the four parties, according to polls.

The four parties could certainly agree quickly on one issue: migration. They all want a drastic reduction in the number of asylum seekers in particular. But Wilders has also promised his voters more money, less taxes and lower costs for shopping and health insurance. That will cost billions. His potential partners, however, do not want to run up debts.

There is also a big catch: the VVD does not want to. At least its leader Dilan Yesilgöz (46) is still reluctant. She says that her party must now be "modest" because of the huge losses it has suffered.

And Pieter Omtzigt (49), leader of the new NSC party, also has major reservations. However, Wilders needs both the VVD and the NSC for a stable majority.

Option 2 - minority government

The VVD leader would tolerate a minority government with a Prime Minister Wilders. This is the political form of "Wash me, but don't get my fur wet." The right-wing liberal would like to have a say on content. "I can't wait to negotiate," says Yesilgöz. She just doesn't want to appoint any ministers.

This is a setback for Wilders, but he is not yet admitting defeat. "The country has to be governed, we have to talk to each other," he says. "And what about the form? We'll see about that later."

But the doubts of former Christian Democrat Omtzigt are much greater, his concerns are fundamental.

How democratic is Wilders really?

Omtzigt founded the NSC precisely in order to strengthen the rule of law. He therefore set tough conditions before the start of negotiations. Wilders had to "put in the freezer" all points in his party program that were not compatible with the rule of law and the constitution.

Wilders had already promised during the election campaign that he would put his agitation against Islam on ice, such as his call for a ban on the Koran and mosques. That is not enough for Omtzigt. He wants guarantees. And he also wants no changes to EU membership, climate protection and aid for Ukraine.

If Wilders were to give in to this, he would have to scrap around half of the PVV program. But his voters would never go along with that.

The mild Wilders

Wilders is now attempting the almost impossible balancing act. On the one hand, he wants to continue to satisfy his voters, but on the other, he does not want to put off his potential partners.

The man with the platinum blonde hair is showing a new side that is willing to compromise. "I'm always honest," he says into the microphones of journalists, whom he usually likes to insult as "scum". The mild-mannered Wilders. "I want to be a prime minister for all Dutch people," he promises. But the façade is very thin. Time and again he becomes abusive, insulting his coveted partner Omtzigt on X, for example. This is the other face of the "Twitter Geert", as one TV reporter joked.

The talks had barely begun before Wilders went on a provocative tour to angry citizens in The Hague who were demonstrating against the emergency reception of refugees in a hotel. He wanted to "stop asylum", he shouted.

Such actions do not go down well with the other parties. After all, the basis of any government is still compromise and consensus. Wilders, however, has been attacking precisely this political culture of the country for over 20 years. Few believe in Wilders' great transformation.

The strong leader

Wilders still has a problem. His own mistrust of his fellow campaigners stands in his way. He is the strong leader of the PVV and even the only party member. Precisely because he fears conflict and a break-up of the party, he allows no dissent.

But if he moves into the "torentje" - the little tower, as the prime minister's official residence is called - he will have to give up total control over his parliamentary group. Chaos threatens. It is not inconceivable that Wilders will remain in parliament after all - as shadow prime minister - and leave the highest office to an independent candidate.

Last option - new elections

So far, everyone has ruled out a grand coalition. And no one dares to think about new elections either. For now, it's a case of wait and see: forming a government traditionally takes a very long time in the Netherlands - the last time it took ten months was in 2021.