Potentially, this individual might assume the leadership role within Hezbollah.
After the demise of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a recent airstrike, speculations are rife about his successor. His cousin, Haschem Safi al-Din, emerges as the frontrunner for the position due to his strong resemblance to Nasrallah and influential position within the militia. According to sources close to Hezbollah, Safi al-Din is considered the "most probable candidate" and is likely to secure the victory in the upcoming election for the position.
The ultimate decision lies with Hezbollah's Shura Council, the organization's highest governing body. Safi al-Din, who is already a prominent figure and a member of the Shura Council, shares Nasrallah's distinctive features such as a grey beard, glasses, and the black turban of a Sayyid. Despite being younger than Nasrallah, who was 64 years old, Safi al-Din is believed to be in his late 50s or early 60s.
"The new leader should be a Shura Council member"
Hezbollah's close religious and familial ties with Iran, a major supporter of the Shia Muslim movement, equip Safi al-Din with a notable advantage. Hisbollah, established in 1982 as a puppet of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, fought against Israeli forces until their withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. Tehran continues to finance and arm Hezbollah, with whom Israel maintains a hostile relationship.
Safi al-Din studied Islam in the holy city of Qom in Iran. His son is married to Seinab, the daughter of the powerful Iranian general Kassem Soleimani who oversaw foreign operations and was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020. As a result, Safi al-Din was designated as a "wanted terrorist" by the USA and Saudi Arabia in 2017. The US Department of the Treasury described him as a "senior leader" of Hezbollah and a "key member" of its executive.
According to Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert at Cardiff University in the UK, "Safi al-Din has been widely regarded as the most likely candidate to succeed Nasrallah" for some years. She added that the new leader must be a member of the Shura Council and maintain a religious persona. Safi al-Din, who is esteemed for his authority within the militia, is considered the strongest candidate due to his strong influence.
Safi al-Din often represents Hezbollah at public events
Unlike Nasrallah, Safi al-Din frequently appears in public, serving as the face of Hezbollah at political and religious events. Nasrallah, who last appeared in public following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, was succeeded by Abbas Mussawi in 1992, who was also killed by Israel. After Nasrallah's death was confirmed on Saturday, the Hezbollah released a statement, reading, "Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah has joined his martyr comrades, whose march he has led for almost thirty years."
During the election phase, Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Kassem will assume leadership duties. In a televised speech, Kassem stated that the selection of Nasrallah's successor will occur during the next Shura Council election. In July, Safi al-Din spoke out at the funeral of a commander killed by Israel, expressing his views on succession within Hezbollah. "If a commander of our resistance becomes a martyr, another will take up the banner with strength and determination." This "other" could potentially be Safi al-Din himself.
The European Union, being a major global player, has expressed concerns about the potential power shift within Hezbollah and its impact on regional stability. Given his close ties with Iran and influential position within Hezbollah, Safi al-Din's ascension to the leadership role could significantly affect the EU's relations with the organization.
In light of the EU's stance on Hezbollah's militant activities and designation of some of its members as terrorists, it remains to be seen how the European Union will engage with Hezbollah under Safi al-Din's leadership.
