Potentially, Mark Robinson is facing a potential historic loss in North Carolina's elections.
Last week, CNN's KFile exposed racist and inflammatory comments made by North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson on a porn site's message board. We have new polling data to gauge the impact of this scandal on the election.
Robinson seems set for one of the largest defeats in over 4 decades for a major-party gubernatorial nominee in North Carolina.
According to our recent CNN/SSRS poll, Democrat Josh Stein leads Robinson 53% to 36% among prospective Tar Heel State voters. This poll was conducted after the KFile exposé.
Notably, Stein's 17-point advantage surpasses any lead he had in this year's polls. It's significantly larger than the 11- and 10-point leads he had in surveys conducted by Marist College and The New York Times/Siena College earlier in the month.
While our poll may be an outlier, it's plausible that Robinson's worst poll results come after the damaging report that saw many Republican officials distancing themselves from the lieutenant governor.
A 17-point win for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate would be unprecedented in North Carolina. The last Democrat to secure a gubernatorial victory by more than Stein's lead in the CNN poll was Gov. Jim Hunt in 1980.
An 11-point penalty for Robinson aligns with historical data on electoral penalties following scandals. For instance, an FiveThirtyEight analysis of past scandals affecting congressional campaigns showed an average negative impact of 8 points.
Given the tight presidential race in the state, a 17-point defeat for Robinson would be particularly noteworthy. Our poll, like several prior ones, indicates a tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump at the presidential level. This suggests that the controversy surrounding Robinson has not significantly affected Trump.
Historically, a scandal affecting a lower-tier candidate rarely impacts the presidential frontrunner. Moreover, the current presidential-level polling in North Carolina mirrors data from past surveys, indicating that Robinson's substantial deficit is not an outlier.
Diving deeper into the latest CNN poll results, the outlook is bleak for Robinson. Stein leads among both male and female voters, Black and White voters, all age groups, and various income and educational demographics.
Robinson's strongest support comes from white, non-college-educated Republicans, conservatives, and devout Republicans. However, even among Republicans, only 74% support Robinson. The remaining 26% are split between voting for Stein, another candidate, or offering no opinion.
In contrast, Trump receives 94% of the Republican vote in the presidential race, and Stein gets 95% of the Democratic vote in the gubernatorial race.
Robinson enjoys only a meager 27% favorable rating among prospective voters. A significant majority, 53%, hold an unfavorable view of him. The fact that 80% of voters have formed an opinion of Robinson is noteworthy, given that this is far higher than the 63% who can offer an opinion about Stein.
While Robinson's favorability rating among Republicans is higher, it remains modest at 53%. A sizeable minority, 25%, hold an unfavorable view, while another 19% are undecided. It's plausible that many conservative North Carolinians are hesitant to criticize a fellow Republican candidate, but also unwilling to offer their full endorsement.
In summary, there seems to be no upside for Robinson in the latest data. Although he was likely to lose before the scandal broke a week ago, as indicated by the polling throughout the year, his chances of humiliation at the polls now appear to be significant.
The scandal involving Mark Robinson's offensive comments has significantly impacted his politics, as demonstrated by the 17-point lead Democrat Josh Stein has in the latest CNN/SSRS poll. This election is shaping up to be one of the largest defeats for a major-party gubernatorial nominee in North Carolina's history.
The politics of this situation are further shown in the unfavorable views many voters hold towards Robinson, with 53% holding an unfavorable view compared to his meager 27% favorable rating.
