Potential significant surge in Germany ticket prices
The Germany ticket might see a substantial price hike from January 1, 2025. Earlier predictions suggested a moderate bump of 5 to 10 euros to keep it budget-friendly. However, certain federal states are advocating for significantly larger amounts. As per "Bild" newspaper, Bavaria proposes a monthly fee of at least 64 euros, which equates to nearly a 30% surge from the current 49 euros.
On the other hand, Schleswig-Holstein has been calculating a price range of 59 to 69 euros since July, representing a potential 20 to 40% hike. This escalation in price is driven by the fact that the current state subsidy of three billion euros, equally split between the federal government and states, fails to cover the expenses. To sustain the 49 euro base price, an additional 1.5 million subscribers would be required.
Higher prices lead to more cancellations
Unfortunately, increasing the rates won't automatically resolve the problem. Customer surveys reveal that even a 10% increase, equating to five extra euros, would discourage 7% of customers. According to a "Spiegel" report at the onset of September, a 20% increase, or ten additional euros, could result in the departure of up to 20% of subscribers. There are no calculations available yet for the proposed increases from Bavaria (an additional 30%) and Schleswig-Holstein (an additional 40%). If the hikes are excessive, the projected revenue coverage through mass cancellations might be jeopardized.
As per "Bild", a transport ministers' special meeting set for September 23 will decide on the precise increase for 2025. Beforehand, the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) stressed that subsidies will be assured only until 2025. VDV CEO Oliver Wolff commented that the financing of this amount beyond 2026 remains unclear and is not integrated into the federal budget planning. This suggests that 2025 could be the last year for the Germany ticket's existence without adequate budgeting.
In light of the proposed monthly fee of at least 64 euros from Bavaria, some ticket holders might decide to cancel their Germany tickets, potentially leading to a significant loss of subscribers. The projected revenue coverage through mass cancellations could be at risk if the hikes from Bavaria and Schleswig-Holstein prove to be excessively high.
