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Poll: SPD members skeptical about new Scholz candidacy

The SPD recorded its worst result in the European election. According to a survey, a majority of party members see better chances for a different chancellor candidate in the federal election.

,   and  Ann Bradley
3 min read
Only a small minority of SPD party members believe that the party could achieve over 25% results in...
Only a small minority of SPD party members believe that the party could achieve over 25% results in the next federal election, as of archival records.

Federal Election 2025 - Poll: SPD members skeptical about new Scholz candidacy

According to a Forsa survey, only one third of SPD members believe that Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz should be the SPD's candidate for Chancellor again in the 2025 Federal Elections. Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed expressed the opinion that the SPD would have a better chance of achieving good results with a different candidate, as shown in the survey by the Meinungsforschungsinstitut für das Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

One third of SPD members believe that the party would have better chances with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The SPD achieved its poorest result in a nationwide election at the European Elections in early June with 13.9 percent.

Forsa interviewed 1001 SPD members for the survey, which, according to the institute, represents a representative cross-section of SPD membership. The party had a total of 365,190 members at the turn of the year, according to its own statements. The survey was conducted between July 8 and 12, 2024, after the coalition leaders reached an agreement on the budget for 2025.

According to Forsa, it is possible to survey a representative cross-section of SPD members because, as part of Forsa's continuous measurement of political opinion, over 120,000 eligible voters are surveyed each year, and those who are members of the SPD and have given permission for a repeat survey are currently able to be re-contacted.

Scholz himself is convinced that he will be the SPD's candidate for Chancellor again in the upcoming election. In an ARD interview in June, he answered the question of whether he was sure of this in the face of criticism with a nearly affirmative "Yes". Niedersachsen's SPD Minister President Stephan Weil said after the European Elections that Scholz was "undisputed as number one" of the party. In his opinion, "all relevant factions in the SPD" agree that "we will go into the next election campaign with Olaf Scholz".

Is the SPD in a serious crisis or just a temporary mood swing?

Fifty-one percent of those asked said that the SPD was in a serious crisis. Forty-six percent saw it as a temporary mood swing.

A majority of 55 percent of SPD members believe that their party should pursue a political course in the center. Forty-three percent, on the other hand, believe that it would be better if the SPD returned to a more left-leaning political profile.

Fifty-five percent of SPD members are very satisfied or satisfied with Scholz's work as Chancellor. Forty-five percent are less or not satisfied. With Lars Klingbeil's work as SPD chairman, the large majority of SPD members (79 percent) are satisfied. Twenty percent are less or not satisfied.

Only a small minority of 12 percent of SPD members believe that the party could achieve a result of over 25 percent in the next Federal Elections like in 2021. Thirty-seven percent expect a result between 20 and 25 percent. Half of the SPD members, however, expect a result below 20 percent in the next Federal Elections.

  1. The debate about the SPD's Chancellor candidate for the 2025 European election in Berlin is gaining momentum.
  2. Redaction Network Germany conducted a survey suggesting that Boris Pistorius might be a stronger choice for the SPD in the European election crisis.
  3. Despite the survey results, Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor candidate for the SPD, remains confident in his role for the upcoming Federal Election in Germany.
  4. Critics argue that the SPD is currently in a crisis, as indicated by a Forsa survey showing that 51% believe the party is in a serious crisis.
  5. Boris Pistorius, recognized as a potential force in the SPD, obtained the support of one-third of the party members in the European election survey.
  6. The survey also revealed that a majority of 55% believe the SPD should maintain a central political profile during the election, while 43% prefer a more left-leaning approach.
  7. In the context of the European election crisis, the survey's results have sparked discussions about whether the SPD should reconsider its political strategy ahead of the 2025 Federal Election in Germany.

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